The UNLV Rebels are in the second year of the Tony Sanchez era and are still waiting to see a return on their investment. The school made a big gamble when it hired the coach from powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School as Sanchez had never coached at the collegiate level prior to the hire. This Week 4 college football matchup against the Idaho Vandals is one of those games that he must win in order for the administration to continue to have faith in him.
Kickoff for this Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 9 p.m. ET at Sam Boyd Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UNLV -14.5
Idaho +14.5
Over/Under 61
Odds Analysis
The Rebels opened up as a 13-point favorite of the bookmakers and have since seen that number pushed past the two touchdown mark. UNLV may have a 1-2 record on the season, but the Rebels have been good for the betting public with a 2-1 ATS mark through three games.
Conversely, Idaho is 0-3 ATS and has failed to come within even a touchdown of covering a spread yet this season. The Vandals were fortunate to beat Montana State in their season opener before getting blitzed by the two Washington schools by a combined 95 points.
Player to Watch
There was a lot of buzz when it was announced that Johnny Stanton was coming to Vegas. The former Nebraska player was a star at the JUCO level, but he has struggled to get accustomed to FBS play.
Stanton is big and a powerful runner when given the opportunity, but his accuracy leaves something to be desired. Through the first three games of the season, he has completed just 44.4 percent of his passes and has also thrown four interceptions. Only three teams are completing a fewer percentage of their passes then Stanton is at this point.
That inaccuracy doomed them to a loss in a winnable game against Central Michigan and is something that needs to improve for UNLV to be competitive.
Key Stat
Idaho’s defense was torched by the Washington schools over the last few weeks and the Vandals have already allowed 18 touchdowns, tied for third-most in all of FBS. It isn’t just the level of competition though as the Vandals’ defense has struggled to stop anyone under Paul Petrino.
This is Petrino’s fourth season in Moscow and the defense has been putrid during his tenure there. Over that period, the Vandals have given up over 40 PPG and almost 500 total yards of offense an outing. No one knows why he thought it was a good idea to hire former Washington State defensive coordinator Mike Breske for the same role at Idaho, but thus far it has not paid dividends.
Free ATS Pick
The Vandals have struggled offensively as well to start the season, averaging just 13.3 PPG and the killer has been the third-down conversion rate. Idaho has converted a paltry 28 percent of its third downs and that has led to a lot of three-and-outs for this team. To make matters worse, Idaho has struggled to convert on fourth down as well, moving the chain in just 4 of those 9 opportunities.
Sanchez has shown that he likes to run up the score when he is able to and if UNLV is finding success, he won’t take his foot off the gas pedal. In both games that the Rebels were a home favorite last season, he covered the spread by double digits, including an 80-8 hammering of Idaho State.
Look for UNLV to come out firing and not let up as Sanchez tries to make a statement. The post-game meeting between the two coaches may be eventful as Petrino has exploded when having the score run up on him in the past.
College Football Odds: Rebels 52, Vandals 24
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