This is one of your classic early season matchups where a lesser team gets paid big bucks to travel and take a thorough beating. But, when the Kent State Golden Flash head to Tuscaloosa to play the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 4, it’ll have special meaning for Nick Saban, a Kent State graduate. As for his players, it’ll have special meaning to them, too, as the starters will get much needed rest after they rally back to beat No. 19 Ole Miss in Week 3.
This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kent State +43
Alabama -43
Odds Analysis
Bettors are used to seeing Alabama as heavy favorites in mismatches like this one. They’re also used to seeing the Crimson Tide struggle to cover in such games.
This spread is a bit high even for the Tide. In fact, it’s the highest spread they’ve had since 2014 which says plenty about both teams. Still, you get to a point where the spread isn’t so much about the teams as it is about the number itself.
College football teams win by large margins every day, but when you get to this level, the conversation becomes more about motivation of the third and fourth stringers as well as the desire for Saban to work on something new and get his players the rest they need to be ready for the real contests that matter.
Player to Watch
All season the Alabama offense is going to be about Jalen Hurts, Damien Harris, Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart. Those are already the names leading the way for the Tide. Saturday will be a different story.
With the starters maybe getting a few reps to stay fresh, the bulk of the load will go to youngsters looking to make a name for themselves and show the coaching staff what they can do given the opportunity.
One player that falls in that category is Trevon Diggs. The freshman has just one reception for 14 yards, but has looked good on kick returns. Diggs may play a bigger role on offense and will be eager to show off to earn Saban’s trust.
Diggs was a four star recruit out of Maryland who was actually targeted by most teams as a cornerback, but the Tide want to see him on the offensive side of the ball. This may be his only real chance to get enough looks to make an impression.
Of course, Diggs isn’t the only talent youngster looking to take advantage of the extended opportunities a game like this allows, but he’s a great one to look at given his position switch and potential for an expanded role as the season progresses.
Letdown Spot
This isn’t a letdown spot in the traditional sense, but it is likely to be a bit one sided in terms of energy. Kent State players will be pumped to play Alabama after most of them failed to get into a more illustrious program. This is a showcase of sorts for them as they play on the biggest stage they’ll see this season.
On the flip side, this game carries meaning for Saban and I’m sure his players will take that to heart, but otherwise, this isn’t like playing LSU or Florida or Ole Miss. This is not a rivalry game, this isn’t a game with history. They just topped Ole Miss in an emotional comeback and have the rest of the SEC rivals on the schedule coming up. This is the break in the schedule, the guaranteed win, the chance to get healthy which means players like Stewart who left the field in the first quarter against the Rebels will have another week to get back.
This differing mentality could be the difference in covering, or failing to cover, the spread.
Free ATS Pick
Yes. The Crimson Tide is going to crush Kent State. But 43-points is a lot to give. The questions turn from being about what the offense and defense can do against the Golden Flashes to just how long Alabama will keep its foot on the gas pedal.
Is Saban really willing to drop the hammer on his alma mater? Let’s also not forget that this Kent State team is returning most of their starters from a year ago so they won’t exactly be feeling their way together as a team.
Alabama wins almost all of the time, but they haven’t done nearly as well ATS in the last handful of seasons because of lofty spread totals just like this one.
Saban will also go away from the starters early. Why not use this game as a way to iron out the kinks and answer a few questions before taking on some of the big boys?
This type of matchup has a familiar ring to it for Alabama and more times than not in ends with a late field goal or touchdown by the opposition to give them enough to cover.
College Football Odds: Alabama 51, Kent State 9
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