Northwestern got its first win of the season last week, defeating Duke 24-13 at home after starting the 2016 season 0-2 and enter this one a one-touchdown underdog hoping to sniff out an upset. The Wildcats don’t have a good record but could be in line to pull off a win at home.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Ryan Field.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska -7.5
Northwestern +7.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
After a big win over Oregon, the Nebraska bandwagon is getting full. The spread has creeped up a half-point and still the bettors are coming in on the Huskers. More than 88 percent of the early wagers are riding Nebraska, and the spread could keep climbing if that continues.
The scoring total is pretty low for a college football matchup and still the early bets are hitting the “under” for this matchup.
Player to Watch
Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. showed extreme poise last week in his hard-fought win over Oregon, scoring the go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter on a 34-yard run. That final drive was a thing of beauty and also included a 14-yard pass on fourth-and-9.
He ended the night 17-of-22 with 200 yards and three touchdowns. So far this season, the senior has thrown for 685 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception through three games.
He also has four rushing touchdowns. Armstrong will look to build upon last week’s big win as he leads the Cornhuskers to Ryan Field this week.
Key Stat
3. That’s the total number of points that have resulted in Northwestern’s two losses this season. While they have come against inferior competition, even one win in those toss-ups would leave the Wildcats feeling much better at 2-1.
However, the record is what it is at this point, and Northwestern will need to pull off an upset or two in the coming weeks in order to get aligned to make a bowl game. It’s been a slow start but this team has the personnel to turn it around.
The Wildcats may be significant underdogs, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for them to win this game.
Free ATS Pick
Northwestern returned its quarterback, Clayton Thorson, from last year’s 10-win team and had high expectations heading into 2016, but the season started slowly.
The defense has been solid, so it’s up to Thorson and the rest of the offense to pick it up. He is 50-of-102 passing for 707 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions on the season, numbers that aren’t good enough.
Nebraska has some talented players and it makes sense why it is the favorite in this one. However, unexpected results happen often in the college football landscape. The Wildcats are talented enough to make this a game, and one or two big plays on either side of the ball could result in an upset win.
Northwestern is a good choice to cover based on its impressive defense, and while a home win may not happen, it could certainly be close. The Huskers will escape with a win to remain undefeated, but it will be a nail-biter.
The “under” is the right call as both teams will need to scratch and claw for the points they can get. This won’t be the most exciting game in the world but it will be hard fought and close throughout.
NCAA Football Odds: Nebraska 24, Northwestern 20
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