Darrell Hazell probably needs five wins if he wants to remain employed as the head coach of the Purdue Boilermakers and this Week 4 College Football matchup against the Nevada Wolfpack is likely the only one he will be favored to win the rest of the season. Although Nevada got hammered by Notre Dame two weeks ago, the Wolfpack are a pretty competent Mountain West team and will give the Boilermakers all they can handle. Will Purdue get its second win of the season or will Nevada be able to pull off the upset?
Kickoff for this Week 1 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Rose-Ade Stadium. This showdown will be broadcast on ESPN News.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Purdue -4
Nevada +4
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
Purdue opened as a 3-point favorite in this game and the line moved to 4 not long after it opened. The Boilermakers are yet to cover a game this season though, failing to cover against Eastern Kentucky in the season opener by a half-point and getting pummeled as a home underdog against Cincinnati two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Nevada is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS but were nearly 1-2 SU after a close overtime win against Cal Poly in its season opener.
Player to Watch
David Blough had a promising freshman season for Purdue in 2015, but it will be interesting to see how he bounces back after a disastrous performance against Cincinnati two weeks ago. Blough threw five interceptions, the most for a Purdue quarterback in a game in a quarter-century, trying to pass out of a hole that just kept getting bigger as the game progressed.
Blough should have a better performance this time out, but it is the first test of the young quarterback’s resiliency. He showcased his ability last season when he threw for four touchdowns and ran for a 56-yard touchdown in an upset of Nebraska. Hazell likes to air it out with his quarterbacks and he will lean on Blough to do as much as he can.
Key Stat
Purdue’s defense’s inability to get off the field doomed the Boilermakers against the Bearcats. Cincinnati converted 12 of its first 14 third-down conversion attempts en route to racking up over 500 total yards on Purdue’s defense and was able to pick up third downs on the ground and through the air.
Now that Boilermakers’ defense has to take on a Nevada team that is also one of the nation’s best at converting third down. The Wolfpack are converting 50 percent of their third downs through their first three games as their successful running attack has given them a lot of third-and-short situations.
For Purdue to cover the spread, its defense will need to limit the amount of yards that Nevada picks up on first and second down and then actually get off the field on third down. If the Boilermakers don’t do that, there’s a good chance they suffer a loss.
Free ATS Pick
These teams have two different styles of play. The Wolfpack are keen to run the ball on the ground under head coach Brian Polian and have averaged over 200 yards on the ground in six of the last seven seasons.
On the other hand, Hazell and the Boilermakers want to pass the ball down the field, but can’t if Blough keeps throwing back-breaking interceptions. Purdue does have some talented receivers on the edges and don’t be surprised if Hazell helps Blough’s confidence by drawing up some screens and pop passes for him.
Nevada is going to be a trendy upset pick with how wretched Purdue has been under the Hazell era, but Purdue will get the job done. The Boilermakers have the talent advantage and that will be enough to get the cover.
College Football Odds: Boilermakers 31, Wolfpack 24
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