The Baylor Bear’s offensive machine has yet to get off the ground through the first three weeks of the season evidenced by each game combining to go under the total. That trend could come to a screeching halt here in Week 4 when the Oklahoma State Cowboys and their defense that just gave up 38 points to PITT pays Waco a visit for the game that kicks off each school’s respective Big 12 campaign.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at McLane Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Oklahoma State +10
Baylor -10
Odds Analysis
Very limited line movement since the open after Baylor was bet down to -10 after opening up as 10.5 point home favorites for this Week 4 jaunt with the Cowboys. That likely has everything to do with OK State outlasting the Panthers at home 45-38 and the Bears once again failing to cover the lumber. This time against Rice in a game they won 38-10 but failed to cover the hefty 33.5 point road chalk after taking their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter; much to the chagrin of those that laid the chalk.
The last time Oklahoma State invaded Waco, it was thumped 49-28 but managed to cover the 33 point closing spread. In the other three meetings dating back to 2012, it went off the board a 4.8 point underdog on average and covered two of those games. With Baylor struggling to beat the linemakers thus far, it wouldn’t surprise to see this line suppress a bit more before kickoff.
Player to Watch
Slowly but surely, Seth Russell is starting to come around and look like the quarterback that got Baylor out to an impressive start last season. To date, he’s thrown for 761 yards and a 9:3 TD/INT ratio while completing 59 percent of his overall passes. He enters this game off his best showing after carving the Owls defense up for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Oklahoma State has struggled to stymy opposing passing attacks with it ranked No. 73 overall and allowing 234.7 yards per game. On top of that, the Cowboys possess a defensive yard per point average of 13.9 and has conceded 30+ points in back-to-back weeks. If Baylor is to start covering spreads like it used to, it’s going to need Russell to set the tone to allow for his ground game to eat against a Cowpokes defense that was just gouged on the ground by the Panthers.
Matchup to Watch
Baylor’s defense owns a YPP average of 29.1. While that looks impressive on paper, it’s attained that impressive mark against powerhouses Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Yes, that was sarcastic. OK State is the first offense with a pulse it will face this season, and it will be up to the pass defense to rise to the occasion with the Cowboys having absolutely no semblance of a rushing attack (No. 119) to fall back on.
Mason Rudolph has thrown for over 1,000 yards and owns a 6:1 TD/INT ratio. Having said that, he’s excelled against a bunch of cream puffs and had a cushy matchup last week versus the Panthers No. 124 ranked pass defense. Baylor allowed just 31 passing yards to the Owls last week, and enters this tilt owners of the nation’s No. 3 ranked pass defense. While they too are yet to run up against a passing attack the caliber of Oklahoma State’s, the strength of Baylor’s defense entering the season resided in the back seven.
Free ATS Pick
Oklahoma State is going to bomb away on anyone that gets in its path. That’s what they do. They have no run game to help them out, so Mason Rudolph has to be the man whenever the offense is on the field. While he’ll no doubt be up against the toughest defense he’s seen to date, he knows what to expect from Baylor. That tilts the advantage into OKST’s favor at least offensively.
The Bears were far from impressive over the course of their non-conference slate. They had major problems putting points on the board early, and killed themselves with costly penalties and turnovers. Hardly the attributes of a team you’d willingly lay double-digits with in a conference opener. Making matters even worse for potential chalk eaters is the team’s lack of an accurate field goal kicker. The only thing preventing me from going all in on the visitors in this one is Baylor’s defense. It’s been exceptional. I’d look to take the points pregame with the Cowboys, and then if Baylor goes down by double digits early, look to live bet the home team at a reduced price.
College Football Odds: Baylor 33, Oklahoma State 30
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