The No. 4 ranked Michigan Wolverines will attempt to take their third straight in the recent rivalry with the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 4 when the rivals open up Big Ten play Saturday afternoon in the Big House. Jim Harbaugh’s squad got a scare from a game Colorado squad last week but rattled off 38 straight points to secure win No. 3. Will James Franklin’s squad be able to move the chains enough to match points with the efficient Wolverines? Let’s dig in and find out.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Penn State +18.5
Michigan -18.5
Odds Analysis
For a fourth straight week, the Fighting Harbaugh’s find themselves installed hefty home favorites. After just failing to cover the closing 17.5 point spread against Colorado last week, the Wolverines opened up as 17 point chalk against the Nittany Lions, and that was quickly bet up to -18.5 with -115 juice letting it be known this number is likely to climb even higher. Better than 76.8 percent of the overall action riding the home team only enforces that belief.
Player to Watch
The Nittany Lions only ran 61 plays and lost the time of possession battle against the Temple Owls last week. For comparison’s sake, the Wolverines ran 10 more plays than Colorado and won the time of possession battle by over three minutes. Saquon Barkley got the most play out of PSU’s backfield and turned his nine carries into 68 yards and a touchdown.
The Wolverines are allowing 3.6 yards per carry (No. 40) and 140 rushing yards per game overall (No. 57). With Trace McSorley not likely to do much through the air against Jabrill Peppers and company, it will be up to Barkley to loosen up the underbelly of the defense to give his quarterback some room to breathe. He blew his wad early against Michigan last season for a 56 yard gain, but then managed just 12 yards on 14 carries the rest of the way. A more consistent outing is a must for Penn State to not get laughed off the field.
Key Stats
Michigan is allowing a miniscule 1.3 third down conversions per game. Even though Colorado got out to a hot start last week, when it was said and done, the Buffaloes converted just 1–of-13 third down tries. That bodes terribly for a Penn State offense that’s routinely been bogged down due to a lack of moving the chains.
The Nittany Lions are averaging just 3.0 third down conversions per game, and if they’re unable to better that output in this one, the chances of kicking in the back door late will be slim to none.
Free ATS Pick
Michigan dominated the proceedings in Happy Valley last season winning the time of possession battle, point of attack battle and ultimately, the battle on the scoreboard winning 28-16 as 3.5 point road chalk. Fast forward to 2016, and the Nittany Lions still don’t look to have nearly the amount of firepower needed to spring the upset let alone cover this lofty impost.
The Wolverines simply have too much firepower on both sides of the ball and special teams to allow Penn State to hang around in this one, especially after getting tested mightily last week before Sefo Liufau went down with an injury.
Way too many things have to go right for the Nittany Lions to compete in this one. They must get an exceptional performance from Barkley on the ground. McSorley must be a viable threat. They must move the chains offensively, and get Wilton Speight and company off the field when on offense. That will be a tough chore for a defense ranked No. 77 in points allowed and No. 82 in defensive yard per point average. I don’t foresee it happening and fully expect Big Blue to cruise to the win and cover in their B1G opener.
College Football Odds: Michigan 48, Penn State 20
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