The Tar Heels have won the last three meetings between these two Coastal Division foes and will look to keep that streak alive on Saturday. North Carolina is a steady home favorite in this conference showdown.
Kickoff for this regular season Week 4 game is set for Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kenan Memorial Field.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Pittsburgh +7.5
North Carolina -7.5
Over/Under 68
Odds Analysis
The line has moved up a half-point, and that is reason enough to ride the Panthers. Even a loss by a touchdown would result in a cover, and bettors are riding that idea to a tune of 75 percent.
The scoring total is one of the higher ones of the week but that hasn’t stopped gamblers to take the “over” at a 60 percent clip.
Player to Watch
Mitch Trubisky -- The Tar Heels quarterback had a slow start in the opener but has been fantastic of late. He was 24-of-27 for 432 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s blowout win over James Madison.
The competition level increases in this one, but if Trubisky can come close to duplicating that performance, North Carolina could roll. He’s arguably the most influential player in the outcome of this game.
He may need to play well, because the Panthers know how to stop the run, as explained below.
Matchup to Watch
Elijah Hood against Pittsburgh’s nationally ranked run defense -- So far this season, the Panthers defense has only allowed 75.7 yards per game on the ground, ranking the team No. 15 in the nation.
The team faces a fierce weapon in Hood who is the Tar Heels leading rusher, averaging 6.2 yards a carry so far in 2016. He has 43 carries for 266 yards and four touchdowns. This includes a 62-yard touchdown run against Illinois in Week 2.
The junior was named first team All-ACC last season as a sophomore, finishing the year with 1,463 yards on the ground and 17 touchdowns. What’s more, senior tailback T.J. Logan is also having a strong start to the season, averaging 7.3 yards a carry over the first three games and accumulating 175 rushing yards and four touchdowns so far.
Free ATS Pick
North Carolina started the season ranked No. 22 in the AP poll, but a Week 1 loss to Georgia sent the Tar Heels tumbling out of the Top 25. The team has responded nicely in the two games since, dropping 104 points in wins over Illinois and James Madison.
A win over a conference opponent like Pittsburgh this week could be a nice springboard to next week where the Tar Heels face a struggling, but talented, Florida State team.
Pittsburgh opened the season win wins over Villanova and Penn State, but lost a tight one to Oklahoma State in its first road game of the year last week. The Panthers will be looking to rebound this week as they try and capture their first win over UNC since 2009.
In the end, North Carolina’s offensive firepower should win out and help the Tar Heels cover the spread in this showdown. If that happens, North Carolina could very well jump back into the national rankings.
The “over” is the play as this could end up a very entertaining matchup.
NCAA Football Odds: North Carolina 42, Pittsburgh 34
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