Something has to give on Saturday as the weak offense of the South Carolina Gamecocks goes against the pathetic defense of the Kentucky Wildcats. This Week 4 matchup that can be seen on SEC Network matches up the South Carolina offense that is averaging just 15.7 points per game against a Kentucky defense that is giving up 43.7 points per contest. This series has been high scoring of late with 8 of the last 9 meetings going over the total.
This matchup in Week 4 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Commonwealth Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Carolina +1
Kentucky -1
Odds Analysis
The Gamecocks opened up as 2-point favorites in this contest and the wiseguys jumped all over this number taking the game down to a pick within minutes and the money has continued to pour in on Kentucky and they are now listed as a 1-point favorite.
Based on how the wiseguys have pounded Kentucky in this contest the number could go higher on the Wildcats although it is hard to see it going up to -3.
The total on this game is likely to be in the 50’s simply because Kentucky’s defense is awful.
Player to Watch
South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp decided to turn his offense over to freshman quarterback Brandon McIlwain who was 16 for 28 for 195 yards passing in the win over East Carolina last week.
"He's got a lot of poise about him," said Muschamp, "He's got a lot of the `it' factor you look for at that position. He doesn’t get fazed by a lot. He’s got a very good work ethic. He’s extremely intelligent. There are a lot of the intangible qualities you look for at the position. Extremely proud of Brandon.”
McIlwain is the starting quarterback going forward for the Gamecocks after enrolling in college just eight months ago. He was the backup in the first two games but now is in front of senior Perry Orth on the depth chart.
“This is not a slight on Perry Orth at all,” Muschamp said. “We needed to have some legs from the quarterback position at this time. It’s about where we are with our offense. We felt like that would be the best for us at this time.”
McIlwain could have a lot of success on Saturday against a Kentucky defense that is a sieve. Kentucky gave up 1,084 yards in their first two games and it didn’t get any better last week as they allowed 500 yards to New Mexico State.
Key Stat
Kentucky has simply been awful in SEC games going 16-35 ATS in their last 51 conference games. Kentucky also hasn’t played well at home going 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. South Carolina has done well recently at Kentucky going 7-3 ATS in their last ten meetings in Lexington.
The trends say that this should be a high scoring game as eight of the last nine in the series have gone over including the last four games at Kentucky.
Free ATS Pick
South Carolina has looked a little better on offense with McIlwain at quarterback and the Kentucky defense is simply a disgrace. The Gamecocks have also done well recently on the road in this series. I am going against the line move and taking South Carolina to get the road win in this contest.
I also can’t ignore the overwhelming trends in this series that favor a high scoring game. There is little doubt that South Carolina is going to score a lot of points simply because Kentucky can’t stop anyone and the Wildcats should put a lot of points as well. I will take this game over the total.
College Football Odds: Gamecocks 38, Wildcats 31
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