The Stanford Cardinals made a statement on Saturday toppling USC. They are primed to carry that success into Week 4’s matchup against the UCLA Bruins. The Cardinals have been a major issue for the Bruins under Jim Mora. In fact, the last time UCLA got the win over Stanford predates Mora’s stint at the helm by a couple of years. After the hiccup in Week 1 against Texas A&M, the Bruins need this win. Now would be a great time to end the winless streak against Stanford. Meanwhile, Stanford will look to hand a Pac-12 opponent and potential conference title competitor its second loss of the year in back-to-back weeks.
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at the Rose Bowl.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Stanford -3
UCLA +3
Odds Analysis
The Cardinals opened as two point favorites on the road. That spread has grown since then with bettors jumping on the Cardinals bandwagon. The win over USC was high profile. The head-to-head record between these teams probably doesn’t encourage bettors to back UCLA either.
The total hasn’t been released, yet, but look for that to be rather low for a college football showdown in the Pac-12. The Bruins had a defensive oriented game in Week 3 and Stanford is still built on defense and running the ball, leading to back-to-back games falling under the projected point totals.
Matchup to Watch
Christian McCaffrey is coming off a very strong performance against USC, rushing for 165-yards and adding 73 more in the air in route to a pair of touchdowns to help lead the Cardinals to a 27-10 victory.
The running game is critical for Stanford as their defense remains the key to this team’s success, but by keeping the ball on the ground, it limited the Trojans’ time of possession, keeping the Cardinals’ defense fresh late. In fact, USC had the ball for less than five minutes in the game’s final quarter.
It’s worth watching to see if McCaffrey can follow up his strong Week 3 against a suddenly tough rush defense that held BYU to just 23 rushing yards last weekend. The team’s pass rushing took care of business, too, sacking Tysom Hill four times.
All that is fine and dandy, but this isn’t a team known for its run defense. In fact, that could’ve been the team’s biggest weakness headed into Week 3. Now, it’s just a really big question mark. Was that a fluke? Or is this rush defense better than we thought?
In their meeting last year, the Cardinals got the win on the strength of their running attack, rushing for a combined 312 yards on 47 touches. In that game McCaffrey went off for 243-yards and four scores.
If UCLA really did figure something out with its remade 4-3 system, this game could look a bit different. I think it’s still fair to look to the team’s last handful of games, including last year, as more indicative of what to expect from the Bruins rush defense. Still, the new system was meant for an opponent like Stanford—and others like it—making this a must watch matchup.
Player to Watch
Keep a close eye on the health and early looks for Takkarist McKinley. The senior defensive end had a nice game against BYU, but was pulled from the game in the fourth quarter. While he was spotted celebrating after the game, his status is still up in the air and he’s a huge part of this remade defense.
McKinley was providing constant pressure on the BYU offensive line and penetrating into the pocket. Similarly to McKinley, Deon Hollins was back on the field, too, and that made a big impact on the defense as well, helping close things in from the other side.
Things you can count on in this game including McCaffrey getting the ball early and often and Stanford’s defense pressuring UCLA. Things UCLA needs to record an upset: a constant and real defensive pressure of its own. To accomplish that, they need McKinley to have another strong performance.
Free ATS Pick
This is just the start of back-to-back road games against top tier conference foes for Stanford who will try to keep rolling after toppling USC last week.
The Cardinals have owned the Bruins in recent past, too, so things continue to stack in their favor despite being away from home. Nevertheless, UCLA shouldn’t be overlooked. We finally saw their rush defense click last week under their new scheme and if that can hold up against the Cardinals, this becomes a team with no real discernable weakness and one that could topple an early season top-10 as a home underdog.
Even so, history prevents me from backing UCLA straight up. This game should be close and if the spread continues to grow, think about fading Stanford. Until then, the Cardinals are undefeated ATS, the Bruins are winless ATS this year and against the Cardinals dating back to 2008, and there are visions of McCaffrey destroying the hope of the improved defensive front for UCLA dancing in my head.
College Football Odds: Stanford 20, UCLA 17
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