The TCU Horned Frogs will look to snag their first cover of the season under the Friday night lights when they pay a visit to the SMU Mustangs for the program’s annual in-state rivalry game. The Mustangs have paid out each of the first three weeks of the season, but they’ll be up against it in this one considering they’ve failed to stick within 19 of their opponent the last three meetings. It certainly doesn’t look good on paper or from a historical perspective, but will the Horned Frogs be 100 percent focused with OU on deck?
Watch this regular season Week 4 matchup live on Friday, September 23, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
TCU -23
SMU +23
Odds Analysis
With the Mustangs a perfect 3-0 ATS through the first three weeks of the season, the opener of -27 in favor of the Horned Frogs was immediately bet down to -24.5, -23.5 and then to -23 where it currently sits. Granted, TCU is yet to cover a game this season, but you have to take the opposition faced to date into account before buying into SMU being decent whatsoever.
It’s run up against North Texas, Baylor and Liberty. The Bears are the only worthy adversary, and while the game went into the break tied 6-6, the Mustangs got outscored 34-7 in the second half to ultimately fall 40-13. Baylor was laying 34.5 points in that game and still nearly covered. This line move looks to have square money written all over it, but is there more than meets the eye?
Injury Report
Matt Davis – The Mustangs initial starting quarterback went down with a season ending knee injury in Week 1. His replacement, Ben Hicks, has left much to be desired having completed just 48.2 percent of his passes for 583 yards and throwing five interceptions to just a pair of touchdowns. Give the Horned Frogs extra chances to put points on the board, and they’ll make you wish you hadn’t.
Look-Ahead Situation
Already with one loss on the ledger and handling the Mustangs with ease the last three meetings in beating them by the aggregate score of 160-54, it’s highly likely Gary Patterson’s kids aren’t 100 percent locked into this one with a huge Big 12 tilt lined up for next week.
The Horned Frogs have a home date with Oklahoma on October 1 which sets up to being an elimination type game of sorts. Since joining the Big 12, the Horned Frogs check in 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS the week before battling the Sooners. Two of those wins and covers just so happened to be against SMU whom they paid a visit to in each game.
Free ATS Pick
SMU has played against one of the easier schedules in the country, yet has only averaged 25.3 points per game (No. 98) and given up just as many. The defense is susceptible to the pass and that’s where the Horned Frogs excel with Kenny Hill bombing away for 1035 yards as well as 10 combined touchdowns. The dual threat is in line for a huge showing this evening if the Mustangs continue to turn the ball over 2.5 times per game.
If and when that does happen, look for a relentless TCU side to pile up the points in hopes of putting it into cruise control in the second half in hopes of giving the No. 1s time off to rest up for next week’s huge home tilt. SMU’s wilted under the Friday night lights covering one of its last five appearances, and stands just 6-15-1 ATS the last 22 times it ran up against Big 12 opposition. Backing the Horny Toads in the first half looks juicy!
College Football Odds: TCU 49, SMU 16
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