The third year is where coaches usually turn the corner if they are going to, but that hasn’t happened yet for Derek Mason and the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy lost a rock fight to South Carolina to kick off the season and got housed against Georgia Tech last week. In College Football Week 4, the Commodores will have a chance to get their second win of the season when they play the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers away from home.
This matchup in Week 4 will take place on Saturday, September 24, 2016 with kickoff at 4:30 p.m. ET. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Kentucky -7.5
Vanderbilt +7.5
Odds Analysis
The spread has remained constant at 7.5 and pretty much reflects the line between these sides when they met last year in Nashville. The Commodores are 1-2 ATS on the season with the one win coming against Western Kentucky’s conference rival Middle Tennessee State, while the Hilltoppers 1-2 ATS but 2-1 outright.
Key Stat
Typically, Vanderbilt has had one of the more solid defenses in the country this decade, but that hasn’t been the case so far in 2016. Through three games, the Commodores are allowing 438 yards per game and that has been a killer as they have continued to struggle on the offensive side of the ball. The defense allowed almost 100 yards less than that last season and with seven starters back, should be performing better.
That defense will be tested in every possible way by a Western Kentucky squad that is known for lighting up the scoreboard. The Hilltoppers love to move the ball through the air and have been very successful in the two games they didn’t have to play the Death Star of college football, Alabama.
Last Year’s Meeting
These two sides met in the season opener last year and although it was billed as a potentially high scoring affair, it was anything but. Western Kentucky’s offense was continually held in check by Vanderbilt’s defense and couldn’t do anything on the ground and only occasionally moved the ball through the air. The Hilltoppers were held to what was by far their lowest rushing and pashing totals on the season.
Instead it was the defense that held strong and run the game, not allowing the Commodores to find the end zone until the last 30 seconds of the game and then holding strong and stopping the two-point conversion attempt that would have sent the game to overtime. Turnovers played a big part as well, but it was the one time all year that the defense was responsible for WKU winning a close game.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to imagine this game being the defensive slugfest that no one expected again this season. Although do-everything quarterback Brandon Doughty is gone, Mike White has proved to be a capable replacement and the Hilltoppers have largely stayed on the same beat.
Vandy’s offensive ineptitude is nothing new, but the defensive struggles are alarming. Middle Tennessee State was able to pass on this defense consistently and Western Kentucky has a more proficient and sophisticated attack. The Hilltoppers should have much more success this time around with their passing game.
Hidden yards go beyond the traditional box score and tell us about things like field position and WKU has a big lead there as well. Punts are traveling five yards longer for the Hilltoppers and WKU has a much better return game as well. This should lead to better starting position and more scoring opportunities for the home team.
The Commodores did itself no favors with its schedule this year as through the first six weeks of the season they bounce between heavy run teams and pass-happy teams. Last week, Vandy played Georgia Tech, which plays a completely different brand of football, and next week the Commodores play a totally different style in Florida as well. There’s just nothing that makes you feel confident Vandy is going to be able to compete in this game, so lay the points and take WKU.
College Football Odds: Hilltoppers 35, Commodores 24
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