The BYU Cougars have been a gritty bunch under first year head coach Kalani Sitake beating Arizona and hanging tough with both Utah and UCLA. They’ll aim for a fourth straight pointspread cover and a possible win against the West Virginia Mountaineers when the teams meet in Landover Week 4. The Cougars are the defensive dog in this matchup but the ‘Neers offense will be the best it’s run up against to date.
This contest in Week 4 of the regular season will go down Saturday, September 24, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at FedEx Field.
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BYU +6.5
West Virginia -6.5
Odds Analysis
The betting public isn’t enamored with the Cougars after they took on the nation’s No. 14 ranked strength of schedule through the first three weeks. WVU opened as 5 point neutral field favorites, but was immediately wagered up to -6.5 just 12 hours after the betting line hit the board.
The Mountaineers offense is a tough nut to crack, and after battling the likes of in-state rival Utah and the Bruins’ Josh Rosen the last couple weeks, it’s possible the defense is a bit worn down. I could see this line jumping another half point, but no further with BYU a perfect 3-0 versus the spread.
Key Stat
With nine starters back from an offense that averaged 34.0 points per game and 479.7 total yards per game, the Mounty’s offensive efficiency has been surprisingly bad. It’s taken Skyler Howard and company an average of 19.1 yards to put a single point on the board, and they haven’t faced a scoring defense ranked in the top 60.
On the flipside, BYU owns a 19.9 OYPP average and has taken on two opposing defenses ranked in the top-52 and one in the top-10. The Cougars are the more battle tested team and the offense is in for one of its better performances of the season provided the first three week’s grind doesn’t get the best of them.
Player to Watch
Taysom Hill - BYU has had a rough go of it offensively to start the season, but much of that has to do with the caliber of defenses run up against. When given the chance, Hill can burn you with both his arm and legs. While he’s only racked up 745 yards of combined offense heading into this game, he’s going to have ample opportunity to make hay against a West Virginia defense ranked No. 99 in total defense but No. 16 in scoring defense.
Don’t let the latter stat mentioned above throw you off. WVU has only played Missouri who racked up 462 total yards but couldn’t hit pay dirt and Youngstown State who went for 405 yards and put 21 points on the board. The Cougars offense is going to put forth its highest point tally of the season in this one, and Hill is going to be the ringleader of the attack.
Free ATS Pick
This has all the makings of a classic scenario where the last team with the ball wins the game. This will be BYU’s second game played to date on a neutral field. They beat the Arizona Wildcats on a last second field goal in the desert the first time around, so the team won’t be the least bit intimidated by its surroundings.
The Mountaineers program has been on shaky ground for a while now, and I’ve seen nothing that tells me it’s taken a step forward to get Dana Holgorsen off the hot seat. Even though WVU enters the more rested team, I’m riding this horse until it dies. BYU’s covered each of its last five against the Big 12 as well as five of its last six overall, while West Virginia checks in 1-5 ATS its last six played at a neutral site.
College Football Odds: BYU 38, West Virginia 35
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