The Arizona Wildcats took a nationally ranked team to the wire last week but came up short. They will aim to pull off the upset this time around in a matchup against the UCLA Bruins in Week 5 of the regular season.
The Wildcats, who are 2-2, have a new quarterback who has done pretty well of late but UCLA will still be the heavy favorite. The Bruins are only 2-2 but have played pretty well against some tough competition and needs a win to move up in the Pac-12 South standings. Arizona could stay in the middle of the race with an upset win.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET a Rose Bowl.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arizona +13.5
UCLA -13.5
Over/Under 58
Odds Analysis
This is a pretty large spread for a pair of teams which have identical records. However, UCLA looked good last week even though it lost to Stanford, and 77 percent of the betting public is backing the Bruins to cover.
The scoring total is too high as Arizona is limited offensively, and the “under” is getting chosen at a 75 percent clip.
Player to Watch
Brandon Dawkins -- Arizona will likely stick with Dawkins as he played well last week for injured signal-caller Anu Solomon. Dawkins has thrown for 625 yards with three touchdowns and an interception, while he also leads the team in rushing with 391 yards and seven scores.
Dawkins had 13 carries for 176 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 35-28 overtime loss to the Washington Huskies. He threw a game-tying touchdown pass with 17 seconds left in regulation but couldn’t lead the team to a score in overtime.
The Bruins will have to be ready for Dawkins’ dual threat abilities. He’s not a great pocket passer, but can really do things with his legs. Expect a stacked box as UCLA wants to force Dawkins to win with his arm.
Matchup to Watch
UCLA passing game vs. Arizona secondary -- The Bruins have a burgeoning star at quarterback in Josh Rosen. He played last season as a freshman, throwing for 3,670 yards with 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
This season, Rosen is 93-of-151 for 1,165 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions. The Bruins are averaging 294.5 passing yards per game through the air, while the Wildcats are giving up 256.3 passing yards per game.
If Rosen can move the ball effectively, it will make it tough for Arizona. The Wildcats hope to pressure him consistently to make Rosen uncomfortable in the pocket.
Free ATS Pick
UCLA is a heavy favorite in large part because of how it played last week. The Bruins were leading Stanford late in the fourth quarter before eventually allowing a touchdown to fall. UCLA nevertheless hung tough against one of the best teams in the country and will look to carry that into this game.
Rosen is solid, and the UCLA defense has only given up 22 points per game this year. The Bruins hope the defense can corral Hawkins, and if that happens the team should be in good shape.
While UCLA has reason to be confident, this spread is just much too high. These teams are closer in talent level than the oddsmakers would indicate. Even though the Bruins have the home field advantage, expect this one to be nip-and-tuck throughout.
The Bruins should indeed be able to win a close one, but Arizona can cover. The “under” is also an easy call as neither team has been particularly explosive this season.
While Arizona isn’t likely to be in the running in the Pac-12 South by the end of the season, the Wildcats should play well enough in this one for gambling purposes.
College Football Odds: UCLA 27, Arizona 24
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