Florida has the more impressive roster and a defense that was playing very well up to last week. The Gators should be able to win this game and will be comfortable favorites to do so, as Vanderbilt has struggled to a 2-2 record.
This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Vanderbilt Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Florida -10
Vanderbilt +10
Over/Under 41
Odds Analysis
The gamblers are still feeling confident about the Gators. They are double-digit road favorites, which isn’t a very easy cover, but nearly 90 percent of the money is coming in on them.
The scoring total is lower than almost every other game on the docket this week, but it looks accurate. The money on the “over” and the “under” has come in evenly thus far.
Player to Watch
Ralph Webb -- The Commodores don’t have a great passing game, so much of the load will be placed on the shoulders of their star running back.
Webb has carried the ball 94 times for 472 yards and five touchdowns this season. Florida is only allowing 76.5 yards per game on the ground this season, so this will be an interesting matchup.
If Webb can consistently gain yardage on the ground, it will give the Commodores a chance at remaining competitive. However, if the Gators can impose their will, Vanderbilt could be in dire straits.
Webb is averaging a career-best 5.0 yards per carry on the young season and is a key cog for an offense which doesn’t have a lot of playmakers.
Key Stat
13. That’s the points allowed per game by Florida’s stout defense this season. The group allowed a touchdown apiece to Massachusetts and Kentucky, and then shut out North Texas.
The Volunteers only had three points last year at the half, but then exploded in the second half, putting up 14 points in the third quarter and 21 more in the fourth.
It was by far Florida’s toughest game of the year and the defense folded. While that will be concerning when more high-powered offenses show up, it may not be a huge deal this week. Vanderbilt has combined to score 17 points in losses to South Carolina and Georgia Tech, and Florida’s defense is more talented than both of them.
Free ATS Pick
The Gators are hanging near the bottom of the national rankings and now will look to make a march back up them. It was an awful implosion against Tennessee, which really took some wind out of the team’s sails.
Florida has an interesting decision to make at quarterback. Luke Del Rio is the starter but Austin Appleby came in as relief against Tennessee when Del Rio got hurt. Appleby threw for 296 yards with three touchdowns and an interception.
No matter which quarterback takes the reins, the Gators are deservedly the big favorites. The offense should be able to score enough while the defense could have a dominant showing.
Vanderbilt quarterback Kyle Shurmur has been inconsistent this season and will have a tough time in this matchup. The Commodores have the home field advantage but not much else going for them.
Florida should be able to win going away, and also cover the spread. Even though the spread is quite low, the “under” is the correct decision. Expect Webb to get bottled up and Vanderbilt won’t be able to score much in this one.
College Football Odds: Florida 23, Vanderbilt 10
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