Two Mountain West teams will be looking to get their first FBS wins win the UNLV Rebels host the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday night in College Football Week 5. Both teams are coming off of crushing losses. The Rebels lost outright as a two touchdown plus favorite against Idaho last week, but it was much worse for the Bulldogs. Fresno State jumped out to a 31-0 lead on Tulsa and then saw it all slip away in the span of 25 minutes before succumbing in overtime. This game is extremely crucial for Fresno State HC Tim DeRuyter as his seat is extremely hot following the loss.
Kickoff for this Week 5 game is set for Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 10:30 p.m. ET at Sam Boyd Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
UNLV -10.5
Fresno State +10.5
Odds Analysis
UNLV is sitting at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS coming into this game, having covered its first two before failing to cover against Central Michigan and Idaho.
Fresno State was blown out away from home by Nebraska and Toledo and failed to meet the number, but did cover last week against Tulsa as a 15.5-point underdog.
The action early on has been very much in favor of UNLV. The Rebels opened as a 7-point favorite and that line has shot up to 10.5. That’s a pretty strong push this early on and it’s clear the wise guys think something is off.
Matchup to Watch
The Bulldogs have been dreadful in stopping opposing offenses this season. In their three FBS games, they are allowing almost 48 PPG and 6.65 yards per play. They have been equally bad stopping the run and the pass, but the rush defense numbers are of particular concern against a team like UNLV.
The Rebels have a quarterback that can make you pay with his legs and despite the poor start, UNLV is a great running team. They are averaging just over 6 yards per carry on the season and the read option is going to be very difficult for the Bulldogs to stop.
To shut down UNLV, you have to make Johnny Stanton throw. If Fresno State’s defense can’t do that, it will be in for a long day.
Last Year’s Meeting
When these two teams met last season, Fresno State was able to keep UNLV’s ground game in check and that allowed the Bulldogs to come back from a 14-point deficit to get the win. The Rebels picked up a scant 3.9 yards per carry and the Bulldogs will want to mirror that performance in order to win.
However, the Rebels didn’t have Stanton as the signal caller last season. The four-star prospect was sitting out after transferring in from Nebraska and gives them a talent that they lacked in 2015. Stopping him will be much more difficult for Fresno State.
Free ATS Pick
Fresno State has really struggled with running the ball this season. The Bulldogs are averaging just 3.28 yards per carry on the ground and that has put a lot of pressure on freshman QB Chason Virgil. Virgil is completing just a bit over 50 percent of his passes this season and if you take out the two big pass plays he had against Toledo and Tulsa, his numbers look horrific.
This is one of those games where you realize it’s best to trust the early line movement. It’s hard to imagine laying double-digits with a team like UNLV, but Fresno State can’t stop the run and might be about ready to give up on its coach. The Rebels have shown flashes against quality opponents, most notably UCLA, and will have a big day on the ground to get a win and a cover.
College Football Odds: Rebels 41, Bulldogs 23
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