Things are looking up for Mike Riley and the No. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers. Following a 3-6 start in 2015, the Cornhuskers are 4-0 to start the season and will be favored in every game until a trip to Madison later in October. In College Football Week 5, the Cornhuskers get a chance for some revenge against an Illinois Fighting Illini team that sent them into a tailspin last season. It was Nebraska’s first loss to Illinois since 1924 and the Huskers faithful are ready to even the score.
This matchup in Week 5 will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Tom Osborne Field at Memorial Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Nebraska -21
Illinois +21
Odds Analysis
The Lovie Smith era hasn’t gotten off to a good start. Illinois suffered double-digit home losses to North Carolina and Western Michigan and now has to go on the road for the first time. Illinois is 1-2 SU and 1-2 ATS on the season heading into this game.
Nebraska has been a solid side this season both SU and ATS. The Cornhuskers are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS and are one of the most balanced offenses in the country.
Player to Watch
Tommy Armstrong is the straw that stirs the drink for Nebraska’s offense and is off to his best start yet. Armstrong was plagued by turnovers last year, throwing 16 interceptions, but has looked much better thus far in 2016.
Armstrong has limited the picks, throwing eight touchdowns compared to just one interception, and that has been pivotal to his turnaround this season. He has always teased Nebraska fans with his potential, but this year it seems that he is finally putting it all together.
In addition to the improvement in his passing numbers, he is also running the ball a lot more than he did in 2015 and to great success. He’s averaging 5.4 yards per carry and allowing Armstrong to run has opened up defenses. He had an awful performance against Illinois last year, completing less than one-third of his passes, and will be looking to atone this season.
Coaching Angle
After walking over Murray State in its first game under Smith, the Illini have really struggled to stop their last two opponents. North Carolina and Western Michigan had their way against this defense, with each team putting up over 430 yards of offense, and this unit seems to be struggling to deal with Smith’s changes.
There were concerns from some that Smith’s hire was pretty questionable considering he hadn’t coached at the collegiate level in over 20 years. In addition to that, he brought in Hardy Nickerson to be his defensive coordinator and Nickerson has no experience at the collegiate level. Nickerson has only been a linebackers coach in his short coaching year and although he was a great player, his coaching resume is a lot more checkered.
Smith is known as a defensive genius but was only hired in March and this team doesn’t seem to have the talent or the time to pick up his scheme.
Free ATS Pick
If Illinois is going to cover this game, it needs a good game from Wes Lunt. Lunt has been a decent quarterback during his time in Urbana-Champaign, but needs to take on a bigger role if the Illini are going to cover the spread here.
Nebraska shouldn’t have any trouble emerging victorious, but this spread is just too many points. Although it’s homecoming week and Riley will want to put on a good show for the alumni, three touchdowns are a lot to cover for a team like the Huskers. Lunt will play well enough to keep the final within the number and get Illinois its second cover of 2016.
College Football Odds: Cornhuskers 35, Fighting Illini 20
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