Top-ranked Alabama is a big favorite on Saturday night as they host the Kentucky Wildcats on ESPN. The Alabama Crimson Tide come into this game at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS while Kentucky is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS. It has been all Crimson Tide in this series of late as they have won the past five meetings and they are 3-2 ATS. This Week 5 matchup opened up with Alabama listed as a 34.5-point favorite.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
Kentucky +34.5
Alabama -34.5
Odds Analysis
Alabama opened up as a 34.5-point favorite and there was no early line movement on this contest.
The public is going to bet the Crimson Tide while the wiseguys may take the big points with Kentucky. If this line moves at all it might go down to 34 if the wiseguys take a big position; if not then look for the line to drift up to 35 because of public action.
Matchup to Watch
If Kentucky is to have any chance of covering the spread they need to be able to have success running the ball. Kentucky has done well on the ground the past two weeks as they got 123 yards from Stanley Boom Williams and 73 yards from Benjamin Snell Jr. The two combined for 317 yards rushing two weeks ago in a win over New Mexico State in a game in which Snell had four touchdowns.
"Having Boom, Benny, Jojo (Kemp) and all the other running backs is a great asset to have with our offense," quarterback Stephen Johnson said. "All those guys can get first downs, extend plays and do anything necessary for us to win."
In the win over South Carolina the Kentucky offense kept the ball for 32:40 and they ran 69 plays. Offensive coordinator Eddie Gran has figured out that the Wildcats don’t have explosive playmakers so they need to run the ball as much as possible to take time off the clock. Johnson is a running quarterback and Gran has put in packages to take advantage of Johnson’s skill set. Kentucky ran the ball 50 times in the win over South Carolina while throwing it just 19 times. The ratio of run/pass was the highest by a Kentucky team against an FBS team since 2011.
It won’t be easy this week for the Wildcats as they face an Alabama defense that is coming off a shutout against Kent State. The Crimson Tide allowed just 166 total yards. It was the 18th shutout for Alabama under head coach Nick Saban. That's what we're looking for every week," linebacker Ryan Anderson said. "We're glad we were able to go out there and do it and glad the second team was able to uphold that standard."
Key Stat
It was all Alabama the last time these two teams met which was in 2013 in Kentucky as the Crimson Tide rolled 48-7. Alabama covered the 26.5-point number in a game that went over the total of 51.5. The teams have not met in Tuscaloosa since 2008 when Alabama just barely pulled out a 17-14 win.
Free ATS Pick
There is no doubt that Alabama is going to win this game, the question is will they cover the spread. The Crimson Tide are 2-0 ATS at home this season but historically Alabama has not been that great at home laying big numbers. The problem with taking Kentucky is that they are normally a rotten road dog as they are 0-1 ATS on the road this season and last year they were 1-3 against the number.
I will avoid a side and just take this game under the total.
College Football Odds: Alabama 38, Kentucky 6
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