Mark Hudspeth had taken the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin Cajuns to four straight New Orleans Bowl games before last season’s disaster. Following a gut-wrenching quadruple overtime loss to Tulane, the Ragin Cajuns now sit at 2-2 and need four more wins in order to get back to college football’s postseason. That means a win against the New Mexico State Aggies in College Football Week 5, a team that hasn’t been to a bowl game since 1960, is paramount to getting UL-Lafayette bowling once more.
This matchup in Week 5 will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Aggie Memorial Stadium. The game will be broadcast on ESPN3.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico State +6.5
Louisiana-Lafayette -6.5
Odds Analysis
Louisiana-Lafayette is 2-2 and 3-1 ATS on the year having covered short spreads in their wins against McNeese State and South Alabama and covered the 3 points Saturday night against Tulane.
New Mexico State is sitting at 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS with the lone win being a shocking upset of in-state rival New Mexico as a double-digit underdog. The Aggies have been at least a 9.5-point underdog in each of their games this season.
Key Stat
Louisiana-Lafayette has really struggled to run the ball so far this season. The Ragin Cajuns are averaging just 3.88 yards per carry through four games and that’s bad news for Hudspeth’s team. Over the past four seasons, his squads have averaged at least 4.6 YPC and this team depends on running the ball effectively to win.
Take their rushing numbers in their wins and losses as an indicator of what the Ragin Cajuns need to do here. In its two losses, UL-Lafayette is averaging 2.4 YPC while in its two wins, its averaging 6.26 YPC.
The Ragin Cajuns have carried the ball at least 36 times in each game and against an Aggies defense that is giving up 5.9 YPC, they will pound the rock relentlessly. There is cause for concern though as star RB Elijah McGuire was hurt in the loss to Tulane and his status for this game is in doubt.
Player to Watch
Remember Anthony Jennings? The LSU castoff has found a new home in Lafayette and gives this team the playmaker they lacked at quarterback in 2015. Jennings has been effective in moving the chains thus far and has been much more efficient with the ball at a lower level of competition.
After failing to complete more than 50 percent of his passes in two seasons of action at LSU, Jennings is completing 62 percent of his passes this season. He has looked more comfortable and relaxed in the pocket and his talent is once again shining through.
However, the one thing that Jennings will need to overcome is his propensity to throw picks. Jennings has thrown four interceptions in his last two starts and UL-Lafayette can’t afford mistakes like that here.
Free ATS Pick
New Mexico State has been one of the worst defenses in all of FBS during the month of September. The Aggies have allowed 45.8 PPG thus far this season and opponents have been able to tear them up through the air or on the ground.
Turnovers have killed the Aggies this year as well with QB Tyler Rogers having thrown seven picks this season compared to just five touchdowns. He has had to throw a lot more than he would like to and that has doomed this team.
While McGuire’s injury is a little worrisome, the Ragin Cajuns still have enough here to roll. Jennings and the ground game should be able to carve this defense up and the Aggies won’t be able to keep pace. Lay the points and grab the Ragin Cajuns even though they are on the road for the second straight week.
College Football Odds: Ragin Cajuns 41, Aggies 24
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