The Memphis Tigers come into this Week 5 matchup against the Ole Miss Tigers with a perfect record but it will take a pretty big upset for the team to leave that way. The Tigers travel to Mississippi as a two-touchdown underdog and need to slow down the Ole Miss passing game to have a shot.
The No. 16 Rebels are 2-2 right now after a grueling start to the season and will be eager to get another win under their belt. Ole Miss aims to build off a big win over Georgia last week.
This matchup in Week 5 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 4 a.m. ET at Vaught–Hemingway Stadium Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Memphis +14
Ole Miss -14
Over/Under 65.5
Odds Analysis
The bettors are loving the Rebels. Ole Miss is a sizable home favorite and that hasn’t stopped the money to come in on them at a 75 percent clip. The Rebels are playing well and are facing an inferior opponent, so most believe they won’t have much trouble.
The gamblers are also expecting a shootout as a gaudy 90 percent of the money has taken the “over” on the scoring total. If that happens, expect plenty of fireworks and big plays.
Player to Watch
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly -- The senior has completed 85-of-130 passes for 1,235 yards with 12 touchdowns and three interceptions.
All three of Kelly’s interceptions came in the Week 1 loss to Florida State and he’s shown significant improvement since. He threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns against Alabama, and while the Crimson Tide eventually roared back for the win, that is no small accomplishment. Kelly put up big numbers last season, and Ole Miss was expected to be competitive this year with him back, despite many other defections. That has rung true, as the Rebels may get better as the year goes on as the players around him should improve.
Key Stat
9. That’s the number of points Memphis is allowing per game this year. The Tigers have have only given up 10 combined in the past two weeks, and slowing down Kelly and the high-powered offense would give them a chance at the upset.
The offense has been good for the Tigers, too, as they are averaging 51.7 points per contest. While the numbers look great, the competition has been very inferior. This is the hardest team it has seen this season and that’s why Memphis is a big underdog.
However, the standout play so far should give them a smidgen of hope that a road win could be in the cards.
Free ATS Pick
Ole Miss has two losses on the year so far, but both have come at the hands of nationally-ranked teams. The Rebels fell to No. 4 Florida in their season opener and also came within five points of the No. 1 team in the nation, losing 48-43 to Alabama in Week 3.
Ole Miss will have a lot of confidence coming into this game against Memphis after the way the team handled Georgia last week. The Rebels led from the jump in the 45-14 win over the No. 12 Bulldogs.
Mississippi is ranked high enough to still be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff if it can run the table. That will be a tall task, but it starts with this one.
Memphis has looked good early on but will face reality in this one. Kelly should thrive as the Rebels should cruise to the win. Even with a two-touchdown spread, Mississippi should be able to cover it.
The scoring total is a bit too high, so go with the “under” in this contest.
College Football Odds: Ole Miss 38, Memphis 21
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