Few losses were more surprising than the Michigan State Spartans’ being pummeled at home against Wisconsin last week. The loss pushed Michigan State out of the Top 10 and seriously hurt their chances at winning another Big Ten Title. Now the Spartans have a tricky road game in Week 5 College Football action when they head to Bloomington to take on the Indiana Hoosiers, a team that hung with them every through three quarters last season before falling apart in the fourth.
Kickoff for this Week 5 game is set for Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Memorial Stadium. This game will be broadcast on the Big Ten Network.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indiana +8
Michigan State -8
Odds Analysis
The Spartans are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS on the season but were victorious both SU and ATS in their one previous road game this season, a big win over then ranked Notre Dame. That fits a broader trend as Michigan State is a glittering 19-7-2 ATS over their last 28 road tilts.
Indiana suffered a surprising home loss of its own last week and now sit at 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS as well. Going off of history, the over might be a safe play as the over is 20-8 in the Hoosiers’ last 28 games in Bloomington.
Key Stat
Turnovers were the reason why both these teams were upset last week and it’s unlikely that either side will be as careless with the ball as they were last weekend.
Michigan State turned the ball over four times against Wisconsin last week and three of those turnovers directly led to scores. One was a fumble return for a touchdown, while the other two gave Wisconsin the ball at the MSU 28 and the MSU 5. These two teams were pretty even outside of the turnovers and that’s what cost Sparty the game.
While the Spartans played right with the Badgers if you take out turnovers, Indiana was significantly better than Wake Forest but turnovers led to a surprising loss. The Hoosiers put up over 600 yards of offense, but Richard Lagow threw five interceptions and that cost them a chance to win the game.
Player to Watch
The Spartans lost a lot of talent from last year’s team, but did return a big piece in LJ Scott. The second-year running back was expected to get a much bigger workload this season, but so far that has failed to materialize.
Scott isn’t having a bad season, averaging 88 yards on the ground per game. However, Mark Dantonio likes to pound the rock when he thinks he has a workhorse back, ask Le’Veon Bell and Javon Ringer, and Scott hasn’t had more than 22 carries in a game yet this season. Whether or not Dantonio has faith in Scott is unclear, but Michigan State is a team that relies on its running game and hasn’t had the numbers from Scott yet.
Free ATS Pick
This is a tricky match-up for the Spartans. The loss last week against Wisconsin was pretty demoralizing and they will be facing an Indiana team that will be hyped up for this one. Michigan State has failed to put away teams this season, letting FCS Furman stay in the game in the opener and then allowing Notre Dame to come roaring back from a 29-point deficit.
Squares will love Michigan State here. They will see that Indiana has two wins against bad teams and lost at home to Wake Forest and immediately count this team out. However, the Hoosiers are a solid squad and the Spartans still have a lot of things they need to work out. Michigan State will be able to do just enough for the win, but Indiana will get the cover.
If you’re a believer in advanced metrics, Bill Connelly’s S&P+ Ratings tell the story. Indiana is ranked ahead of Michigan State in the ratings and the Michigan State’s offense is nothing to write home about.
College Football Odds: Spartans 28, Hoosiers 24
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