Although no one is talking about them, one of the most fun teams outside the power five conferences is the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders. The Blue Raiders throw the ball all over the place under QB Brent Stockstill and will look to light up the scoreboard again in their second Conference USA game of the season. Welcoming MTSU in this College Football Week 5 affair will be the North Texas Mean Green, an old foe from the time these teams were both up and comers in the Sun Belt.
This matchup in Week 5 will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Apogee Stadium. The game will be broadcast on CI.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Texas +14.5
Middle Tennessee State -14.5
Odds Analysis
North Texas is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS heading into this game. The Mean Green have covered three straight after a season-opening loss to SMU and are riding high after a thrilling double-overtime victory against Rice.
Middle Tennessee State is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS but was just a half-point away from covering last week against Louisiana Tech.
The home team has not only won, but won big, in each of the last four meetings between these two sides. The host has won each of those games by at least 17 points even though the spread for three of the four was in single digits.
Matchup to Watch
The Blue Raiders will look to throw the ball often against the Mean Green. MTSU relies on the passing game to set up the run and Stockstill will try to loosen up this defense with his arm.
MTSU has 14 passing touchdowns through its first four games, tied for sixth-most in the nation, and Stockstill is averaging over 340 yards through the air each game. He has done a good job of spreading the ball around, but it’s clear who his go-to guy is.
Richie James is continuing to shine after a great freshman season and has 33 catches for 419 yards and three touchdowns this season. He scorched the best secondary he has faced this season, Vanderbilt, and will look to do the same against North Texas.
Last Meeting
When these teams met in Murfreesboro last season, it was domination from start to finish. The Blue Raiders scored touchdowns on their first four drives and didn’t look back in an easy victory. Stockstill exposed this defense completely and left the game after taking a 41-7 lead into the third quarter.
North Texas wasn’t able to get anything going through the air all game long and that was a big reason why the Mean Green were blown out. The Mean Green averaged less than five yards per pass attempt and with numbers like that it’s really hard to get a victory.
Free ATS Pick
North Texas has been improved under new head coach Seth Littrell. Littrell came over from North Carolina and promised that the team would be more effective at putting points on the scoreboard and that has proved to be the case. After averaging just 15.2 PPG in 2015, the Mean Green are averaging almost 35 PPG if you take out their performance against Florida.
The next two weeks will be a barometer for how far North Texas has come in a short amount of time. The Mean Green welcome Marshall to Denton the week after MTSU and playing either team close would be a sign that things are moving in the right direction.
This game might be close for a little bit, but Middle Tennessee should be able to pull away in the end. The Blue Raiders are just too talented and the Mean Green are still learning their new coach’s system.
College Football Odds: Blue Raiders 39, Mean Green 23
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