It’s been a banner year for the service academies so far. The Navy Midshipmen and Air Force Falcons are both 3-0 and Army was a missed field goal away from ending September at 4-0. For the first time in decades, all three service academies may be going bowling and the Commander-In-Chief’s Trophy will have some serious competition. This is one of the more underrated games in a jam-packed College Football Week 5 slate, but worth paying attention to.
This matchup in Week 5 will take place on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Falcon Stadium. The game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force -7
Navy +7
Odds Analysis
The Falcons are 2-1 ATS heading into this game and have been favorites in every game thus far. As for the Midshipmen, they are 2-0-1 ATS after pushing two weeks ago against Tulane but are somewhat fortunate to be undefeated after UConn boggled a chance to beat them late.
Navy has been favored in each of the last three meetings, but the home team has won and covered each of the last three as well.
Last Meeting
Turnovers were the big factor in last year’s meeting between these two squads. Air Force turned the ball over four times, while Navy kept a clean sheet. What was even worse for the Falcons though was the timing of the turnovers.
All four of Air Force’s turnovers not only came in the first half, but occurred when it had the ball in scoring position. The first Falcons’ turnover was at the goal line on downs, while the next three were inside the Navy 40 and cost Air Force scoring opportunities.
In a game where Navy only had 14 first downs, those turnovers were deadly and cost Air Force a chance to pull off the upset.
Look Ahead Spot
Typically, it would be crazy to think of this game as a potential look ahead spot, but Navy has to have a little bit of revenge on its mind. Next week, Houston comes to Annapolis and Navy knows if it wants to win the AAC it has to knock off its biggest division rival.
Last season, Navy was 7-0 in conference play and favored to get the Group of Five spot for a New Year’s Six game after beating USF and Memphis, but got its doors blown off at Houston. The Cougars scored on eight of their first nine possessions and that led to a big victory that relegated Navy to the Military Bowl. If Navy could derail Houston’s potential dream season, that would be a nice way to avenge its loss last year.
Free ATS Pick
It’s tough to replace one of the most important players in program history, but Navy hasn’t missed a beat so far. Keenan Reynolds left as the FBS career touchdown leader and was also a devastating passer. Despite losing his replacement, Tago Smith, to a knee injury in the first game, Navy is still undefeated because of better than expected play from reserve Will Worth. Worth will need to have another solid game for Navy to get a win here.
Air Force has a devastating rushing attack and only trails Army in rushing yards per game. The Falcons are averaging 359.33 yards per game and have a whopping six players with at least 100 yards on the ground through their first three games. They will be facing a Navy defense that is allowing over four yards per carry.
This is going to be a fast game as both teams run, run, and run some more. However, this time around, look for Air Force to get the job done. The Falcons are more experienced and better prepared to stop their opponent, allowing just 2.01 YPC through three games.
College Football Odds: Falcons 31, Midshipmen 21
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