It’s been a rough start to the season for the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii’s defense has been one of the worst in the nation and that has led to a 1-3 start. However, although defense is the main issue, HC Nick Rolovich announced that he is making a change at quarterback to before this Week 5 College Football tilt against the Nevada Wolfpack. Senior Ikaika Woolsey is out and JUCO transfer Dru Brown will get his first start.
Kickoff for this Week 5 game is set for Saturday, October 2, 2016, at 12 a.m. ET at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Hawaii +4.5
Nevada -4.5
Odds Analysis
The Rainbow Warriors have been better than Vegas has expected through the first month of the season. Against three power conference opponents, Hawaii was at least a three touchdown underdog in each game, but managed to stay within 20 points in two of those games.
Nevada is off to 1-3 start ATS, but playing a fellow Mountain West team will be a welcome relief for the Wolfpack. Last season, Nevada was 7-2 ATS against conference opponents, including covering its last six against MWC foes.
Early money has been on the home team here as Nevada has moved from a 6-point favorite down to 4.5.
Player to Watch
All eyes are going to be on Dru Brown this week as Rolovich looks ready to tie his success at Hawaii to the JUCO transfer. Rolovich recruited Brown while he was the offensive coordinator at Nevada and while he wasn’t offered a scholarship, the coach wanted him to be a preferred walk-on. Brown demurred and chose to go the JUCO route.
Brown wasn’t expected to compete for the starting job so soon, but it’s clear that Rolovich sees something in him. He is a dual-threat quarterback, unlike Woolsey, and has the promise of youth. Brown has talent, but is undeniably raw and it will be interesting to see how he performs in his first start.
Coaching Angle
Rolovich was the offensive coordinator at Nevada for the past four seasons and this is his first time facing his former team. Unlike most Hawaii coaches in recent memory, Rolovich prefers to keep the ball on the ground, and three of his four Wolfpack teams averaged more yards rushing than they did passing.
Although he knows the personnel, he doesn’t have the grasp on Nevada’s offense he might under other circumstances. The Wolfpack hired someone from outside the program to replace Rolovich and the defense is filled with underclassmen in starting roles. Meanwhile, Nevada HC Brian Polian certainly knows Rolovich’s tendencies.
Free ATS Pick
Nevada has struggled to put points on the board under its new offensive coordinator. The Wolfpack are averaging 23 PPG through the first four games of the season and while you might note that two of those games were against Power Five opponents, Notre Dame and Purdue haven’t been great defensively this season.
Although Tyler Stewart was seen as a fringe draft pick by some coming into the year, he has failed to crack the 200-yard mark passing so far this season and has relied far too much on dinking and dunking in the passing game. He isn’t helped by a running game averaging just 4.3 yards per carry either.
These midnight Hawaii games always seem to have some strange results. Maybe it’s the time difference or just the jet lag from the travel, but there’s something to it.
Nevada is in a bit of a tough spot for this game. The Wolfpack traveled to Purdue just last week for an early game and now have to again hit the road to take on Hawaii. The travel is going to be just a bit too much and this one will go down to the wire.
College Football Odds: Rainbow Warriors 24, Wolfpack 23
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