The No. 12 Florida State Seminoles did their best to put that blowout loss to No. 3 Louisville behind them last week as they captured a 55-35 win over South Florida. The team will look to build upon that victory in Week 5 as it returns home to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Seminoles and the Tar Heels are both 3-1, but Florida State is an 11-point favorite and also has home field advantage this week. The team can’t afford another loss, especially to an unranked team, so every week is big from now on.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Bowl.
NFL Odds at BookMaker.eu
North Carolina +11
Florida State -11
Over/Under 69
Odds Analysis
North Carolina started the season with high hopes but lost to Georgia in the opener. The Tar Heels are significant underdogs in this one and 62 percent of the money is going to Florida State to cover the spread.
The scoring total is one of the higher ones you will see this week and yet the “over” is still the more popular choice, with more than 87 percent of the money going that way.
Player to Watch
Florida State running back Dalvin Cook has 495 yards on 78 carries in the first four games. He’s run for four touchdowns so far this year including a 75-yard touchdown run last week against South Florida.
Cook is averaging 6.3 yards a carry. He had a breakout game last week, carrying the ball 28 times for 267 yards with two touchdowns.
The North Carolina defense is giving up 240.3 rushing yards per game, which is a really poor job. Going against Cook will be an extremely tough test, and he could be in line for a big game if the Tar Heels defense doesn’t step it up.
Coach Watch
Florida State is hoping to get back into the College Football Playoff picture after the early blowout loss to Louisville. It will take a perfect finish, and the Seminoles will have to put aside distractions.
One of them is the chatter about coach Jimbo Fisher being interested in the LSU job. Les Miles was fired after last week’s loss, and Fisher was one of the many names brought up.
He was an assistant at the school for more than a half-decade in the early 2000s, but dispelled any notion that he would be interested in the position in a press conference earlier this week.
Fisher said his aim is beating North Carolina, and he needs to keep his team focused in order to cover.
Free ATS Pick
North Carolina started the season off with a tough loss to No. 18 Georgia, but has gone 3-0 since then. Last week, the Tar Heels defeated Pittsburgh by a point to keep their winning streak alive. The team also has victories over Illinois and James Madison, but hasn’t been overly impressive.
Florida State started off well by knocking off No. 11 Ole Miss in its season opener, 45-34. However, the Seminoles were knocked down a peg by Louisville. It’s going to take a great finish to get back into the playoff picture, and a dominant win over North Carolina would be a nice step.
The Seminoles’ defense is the main problem, as it has given up too many big plays early on. Tar Heels quarterback Mitch Trubisky will aim to take advantage, and he should be able to move the ball effectively.
While Florida State should win this one when everything's said and done, it could be harder than expected. North Carolina will keep this one close and cover the spread, and the “over” is the correct choice on the scoring total.
College Football Odds: Florida State 41, North Carolina 34
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