The Colorado Buffaloes might not have their starting quarterback once again this week. That might not be such a bad thing. Colorado is riding high after an upset win over Oregon last time out behind the standout play of backup signal-caller Steven Montez.
Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre said his starter, Sefo Liufau, is still dealing with an ankle injury and it’s unknown which one will start in Week 5 of the regular season against Oregon State. The Beavers have lost two of their three games this season and will likely be significant underdogs when the spread is chosen.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 11:30 a.m. ET at Folsom Field.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
It seems clear that Colorado will be the heavy favorite, as it is 3-1 on the year and gets this game at home. The Buffaloes are the more talented team regardless of which quarterback starts, but it will help define the spread once a decision is made at that position.
Player to Watch
Steven Montez -- The Buffaloes backup quarterback did a fantastic job when he was thrust into action in a tough spot against Oregon. Montez completed 23-of-32 passes for 333 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions while adding 135 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Even if Liufau is close to 100 percent, Colorado may choose to go with the hot hand after that incredible performance. Oregon will get into high scoring games so it’s not a shock that Colorado scored a lot of points, but it was a really tough position to be put in and Montez excelled.
Liufau is getting healthier after the recent ankle injury and hopes to resume as the starter. He is 54-of-76 passing this season for 768 yards and six touchdowns.
Look-Ahead Situation
This is a dangerous game for Colorado. The Buffaloes are coming off a huge upset of Oregon and are feeling very good. The offense has played well and the secondary has shown it has a lot of talent to slow down opposing passing game.
The Buffaloes should certainly win this game the vast majority of the time, but it may be hard to have total focus. Coming up next is a road game against USC which could really be a pivotal contest in the Pac-12 race.
Colorado has really burst onto the scene with its play this year and now must sustain it. While it seems unlikely the Buffaloes lose this game, they just showed last week that a road underdog can pull out a thrilling win.
They don’t want to be on the other side of that coin when Oregon State comes to town.
Free ATS Pick
The Beavers have not looked very good this season, beating Idaho State but losing to Minnesota and Boise State. Oregon State has been outgained on average this year and its passing game hasn’t been clicking very well.
Quarterback Darell Garretson is 51-of-86 for 453 yards with three touchdowns and an interception on the season and gets a tough test as Chidobe Awuzie and the rest of the Colorado defensive backs will aim to pick him off and blanket the receivers.
Defensively, the Beavers are coming off a game where they gave up 38 points to Boise State and will get another tough test as the Colorado offense is averaging 42.3 points and 523.3 yards per contest.
When the statistics are studied, this is one Colorado should have no trouble winning. However, the letdown situation is a serious one. If the Buffaloes overlook the Beavers, this could be closer than expected.
While Colorado should certainly win this one, take a close look at the spread when it comes out. If it’s higher than two touchdowns, Oregon State should be the choice to cover. The Buffaloes are playing well but could be due for a relative clunker.
College Football Odds: Colorado 35, Oregon State 21
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