The South Florida Bulls and the Cincinnati Bearcats are both 3-1 heading into Week 5 and the conference foes will go head-to-head this week. The Bulls are the current leaders in the American Athletic East while the Bearcats are in third.
South Florida is the six-point favorite, but will be on the road this week so this could be a close one. It’s an important week for both teams in terms of conference play and each should bring their best on Saturday.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Nippert Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
South Florida -6
Cincinnati +6
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
The gamblers like the Bearcats getting so many points at home. Even though a loss by a touchdown would not result in a cover, anything closer would work out. Nearly 54 percent of gamblers are taking Cincinnati to cover the spread.
The scoring total looks pretty accurate, although the early bettors are going for the “over” more commonly.
Player to Watch
South Florida’s quarterback Quinton Flowers is a serious dual threat on the field. He has thrown for 875 yards in the first four games and ran for 309 more.
In the Bulls’ Week 2 game against Northern Illinois, he had his most impressive passing performance of the season, finishing 21-of-33 for 350 yards with four touchdowns. As a runner, he is averaging 6.3 yards a carry so he will be a dangerous threat to the Bearcats defense.
The junior quarterback led South Florida to a 65-27 win over Cincinnati at home last year, throwing for four touchdowns in the win. He’ll be looking to match that performance again this year against Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are giving up 280 passing yards per game so while Flowers can strike in multiple ways, it may be most advantageous for him to go through the air.
Matchup to Watch
South Florida running game vs. Cincinnati's front -- The Bulls have looked good this year on the ground, racking up 257.8 yards per contest, which has helped lead an offense which scores 46 point per game.
Flowers is mobile and he has a nice stable of backs to give him help. Cincinnati is only allowing 131.3 yards per game rushing this season and would love to keep Flowers in third-and-long situations, where he is susceptible to turnovers.
Cincinnati's defense has played well this season but will get a big challenge against the South Florida ground game.
Free ATS Pick
South Florida will be eager to get back in the winning column last week after suffering their first loss of the season last Saturday to No. 13 Florida State by a score of 55-35. The Bulls started the season off with a 56-20 win over Towson and also had easy wins over Northern Illinois and Syracuse.
Although South Florida won the most recent matchup between these schools in 2015, Cincinnati has the edge all-time, having won eight of the 13 times these squads have played.
The Bearcats beat Purdue but were throttled by Houston, so it will be interesting to see how they will hold up in this one. The belief is that Flowers and the South Florida running game will do enough to wear down Cincinnati, turning a close game into a two-possession victory.
The would be a nice road win for the Bulls and it would cover the spread for gamblers interested in this action. The scoring total is expected to go “under” as Cincinnati’s offense will not be explosive enough to keep up.
South Florida has played well early on and should add a conference road win to their resume when this one wraps up.
NCAA Football Odds: South Florida 30, Cincinnati 20
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