The Tennessee Volunteers passed their first big test of the season last week against No. 19 Florida, but the team is still in the thick of a very tough stretch that includes four nationally-ranked opponents in a row. Next up for the No. 11 Volunteers is the No. 25 Georgia Bulldogs in a clash of SEC powers.
Georgia comes into this Week 5 matchup at 3-1 after suffering its first loss week at the hands of Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are slight underdogs at home, but are undefeated on their home turf so far this year.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down on Saturday, October 1st, 2016 at 12:30 p.m. ET at Sanford Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Tennessee -3.5
Georgia +3.5
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
The Volunteers are the road favorites and the betting public is backing them heavily. Tennessee is grabbing nearly 80 percent of the money to cover the spread. That’s not an easy task on the road against a conference opponent, but the oddsmakers and bettors are confident.
The scoring total could be a little high as more than two-thirds of the early money is jumping on the “under” for this matchup.
Key Stat
5. That’s the negative points-per-game differential for Georgia this year despite a 3-1 record. The Bulldogs are averaging 25 points per contest while giving up 30.
They are over .500 because they were able to scratch out a two-point win over Nicholls State and a one-point win over Missouri. However, a blowout at the hands of Ole Miss has dropped them from the rankings, and the point-differential doesn’t portend well for a fast finish.
This is a key reason why Tennessee is a road favorite. Georgia might have three wins, but they haven’t come easily against teams the Bulldogs should have beaten handily.
Matchup to Watch
Nick Chubb vs. the Tennessee rush defense -- If the Volunteers can bottle up Chubb, they will have a great chance to win this game and cover the spread. He is one of the more talented running backs in the country but has had an up and down season.
Chubb has 83 carries for 422 yards and three touchdowns this season. The 5.1 yards-per-carry are solid for most tailbacks, but are not up to his high standards. Chubb had 1,547 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 yards per pop in 2014, and then averaged 8.1 yards per carry in an abbreviated 2015.
Tennessee gives up only 141 yards per game on the ground, but has a tough task ahead of it. Chubb had 222 yards in the opener but his numbers have decreased in every subsequent game.
If he fails to reach the century mark in this matchup, it will be a bad sign for Georgia.
Free ATS Pick
After losing to the Gators 11 year in a row, Tennessee finally got a win over its conference foe last week. After falling behind early, the Volunteers rallied back to win the game and break the streak, keeping their perfect record alive and taking control of the SEC East.
There’s a lot for the Volunteers to feel good about right now. But there’s absolutely no time to celebrate with Georgia this week and No. 9 Texas A&M and No. 1 Alabama waiting in the wings.
Tennessee started the season off with an overtime win over Appalachian State and also recorded victories over Virginia Tech and Ohio this season.
Georgia has a lot to prove in this one after getting blown out last week. If Chubb can dominate on the ground, the Bulldogs will have a chance.
However, despite a bad opening week scare, Tennessee has responded well. The Volunteers should remain undefeated with a road win in this contest.
College Football Odds: Tennessee 27, Georgia 21
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