Two of the best teams in the Mid-American Conference will face off when the Western Michigan Broncos travel to face the Central Michigan Chippewas in Week 5 of the regular season. Western Michigan is undefeated and aiming to stay that way and is a slight road favorite to pull that off.
Both teams have been impressive against big-school foes and now will face off in a key conference showdown. They are similar statistically and this one could help identify one of the early bets for Mid-American supremacy.
This contest in Week 5 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.
NCAA Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Western Michigan -3
Central Michigan +3
Over/Under 56.5
Odds Analysis
The undefeated Broncos are slight favorites to emerge victorious again, and the betting public is backing them at a 59 percent clip, even with the vig up to -120. Central Michigan is an enticing bet at +100 to cover, especially since it is playing at home.
The scoring total is deemed too high by the gamblers, as 88 percent are currently taking the “under” among the two options.
Matchup to Watch
Cooper Rush against the Western Michigan defense -- The Central Michigan quarterback has been impressive against tough competition this year. Rush has thrown for 1,359 yards with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions in four games, averaging 339.8 yards through the air per contest.
Rush faces a pass defense which has been similarly solid. Western Michigan has given up only 221.3 yards per game through the air, and that’s even including opponents being forced to throw when trailing late in contests.
Corey Willis is Rush’s top target, as he has hauled in 17 passes for 327 yards and six touchdowns on the season this year.
Key stat
4-1. That’s the combined records by these teams against major-conference foes. Central Michigan has played three of them already, winning a pair.
The Chippewas upset No. 22 OKlahoma State in their second game and then beat up on UNLV by 23 points to move to 3-0. Virginia finally ended the run, knocking off Central Michigan by a score of 49-35 last time out. It was the first big hiccup defensively for the team, which it hopes to rectify.
Western Michigan defeated Northwestern by a point in its opener, and then followed that up with a blowout of Illinois two weeks ago. The work by the Broncos has been really impressive, as they have shown that being a smaller program doesn’t stop you from defeating more well-known teams.
Free ATS Pick
The beginning of the season has gone great for both schools, and this has become quite the showdown. They are very similar statistically, as Western Michigan is averaging eight fewer yards per game and allowing seven fewer.
The Broncos have the advantage in point differential and, of course, in the win column, but this one certainly seems like it should be close and could go either way.
If either side had a shiny record against inferior competition, that could be discounted, but both have shown their wherewithal against large-conference schools. Western Michigan has been a tad more impressive overall, but the Chippewas are not far behind.
Since Central Michigan is at home, and a slight underdog, the choice is to choose it to cover. If the moneyline is attractive, this is a team that could definitely win the game outright. Rush is good enough to put some points on the board.
The scoring total is a bit high since the defenses should step up. When it’s all said and done, this should be a very competitive game and could give some clarity in the Mid-American Conference since both sides are looking strong heading into Week 5.
NCAA Football Odds: Central Michigan 27, Western Michigan 23
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