It is a battle of unbeatens on Saturday at “The Big House” as the 8th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers visit the 4th-ranked Michigan Wolverines on ABC in Week 5. The Badgers are not getting much respect from the oddsmakers even after last week’s impressive 30-6 win at Michigan State as Wisconsin is listed as a 10.5-point underdog. The Wolverines are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS but they have fattened up on patsies and all four games were at home.
Watch this regular season Week 5 matchup live on Saturday, October 1, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Wisconsin + 10.5
Michigan -10.5
Odds Analysis
The Wolverines opened up as 10.5 point favorites in this contest. There was a little bit of movement toward Wisconsin as the line briefly went to 10 on Monday morning but the number was quickly bet back up to 10.5.
This is an interesting matchup and an interesting spread as the Wolverines are a big public team while the Badgers are starting to become a team the wiseguys are watching. It is a perfect scenario for the sportsbooks if the wiseguys do believe in Wisconsin because the number on this game would basically stay where it is with the public taking the Wolverines while the wiseguys take the Badgers.
Player to Watch
You may have heard about Corey Clement but who is Alex Hornibrook you may ask? He is the starting quarterback for the 8th-ranked Badgers. He made his first start last week and looked good in a 30-6 win over Michigan State. He was outstanding on third down last week as he went 6 of 8 for 127 yards and a TD in the first three quarters. Hornibrook threw for 195 yards and a TD in the win.
"You've got to have respect for a guy whose first start is against a Michigan State defense," Clement said. "He's going to come out the next game and do even better. I think he's just getting his feet wet."
The Badgers started Bart Houston in their first three games but turned to Hornibrook for the game against Michigan State. The calm and cool by Hornibrook was definitely evident against the Spartans. "That's something that I take pride in, just staying the same level, not going too far up or too far down," he said.
Hornibrook will be going against a Michigan defense that ranks No. 1 in the country in third down defense.
Key Stat
Both of these teams have done well of late against the spread as Wisconsin is 5-1 ATS in their last six games while Michigan is 4-1 ATS in their last five.
The Badgers have done really well in this series going 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings and they are 3-1-1 in their last five at Michigan. The underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
Wisconsin has been a good team to bet under the total of late as they have gone under in 4 of their last 5 games but Michigan has been a great team to bet over the total with their last 12 games going over. The Wolverines have gone over in their last 8 home games. The tiebreaker in terms of trends with the total could be the series matchup as the last four meetings have gone over the total.
Free ATS Pick
The Badgers simply are not getting enough respect. They not only won at Michigan State last week, they dominated. They probably won’t be able to dominate Michigan but they should be able to stay in this game. Wisconsin is averaging about 31 points per game and allowing just under 12 points per contest.
Michigan has looked good but they have yet to play anyone and they get a huge step up in competition this week. The odds definitely don’t take into consideration the schedule strength of the Wolverines.
I will take the points with Wisconsin in this contest.
College Football Odds: Michigan 24 Wisconsin 21
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