For the first time in a long time, the No. 19 Boise State Broncos aren’t the mid-major program that everyone is talking about. Even though Boise State has started the season strong with two wins over PAC-12 opponents, the Broncos are almost an after-thought at this point in the season. In College Football Week Six, the Broncos will have revenge on their minds when they take on the team that upset them as a 31-point underdog last season, the New Mexico Lobos.
This contest in Week 6 of the college football season will go down Friday, October 7, 2016 at 9 p.m. ET at Branch Field at University Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
New Mexico +18
Boise State -18
Over/Under 60
Odds Analysis
Boise State has been a double-digit favorite in each of its games thus far, but hasn’t been able to cover the lofty spread most of the time. The Broncos are just 1-3 ATS, but the one game they did cover was on the road.
The Lobos have struggled to meet expectations thus far, sitting at 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. Their one ATS win was against an FCS team and they are searching for their first cover against FBS competition this season.
Matchup to Watch
New Mexico runs a triple option out of the pistol formation and that unique twist on the triple option has been difficult for opposing defenses to stop. The Lobos are averaging 6.49 yards per carry and have sliced up every defense they have faced this season.
This offense hasn’t seen anything like Boise State’s defense though. The Broncos are solid up front and are allowing just 2.4 yards per carry through four games. Their linebackers are able to fill holes quickly, but will have to play disciplined football against the Lobos.
Last Year’s Meeting
New Mexico pulled off one of the biggest upsets of 2015 when it went into Boise and knocked off the Broncos last season. The Lobos made some big plays and capitalized on turnovers to pull off the shocking win, but were unable to stop Boise State at all.
The stat sheet from last year’s meeting makes your head spin. Boise State racked up 641 total yards and tallied 40 first downs on New Mexico’s defense, but were only able to turn that into 24 points. Turnovers played a big role there as the Broncos coughed it up four times and that proved to be fatal.
The item that sticks out the most though is how dominant Boise State’s defense was outside of five big plays, but those plays proved to be just enough for the win. The Lobos had five plays of 30 yards or more and outside of those, the offense averaged less than 3 yards per play, managed just 11 first downs, and didn’t convert any of their 10 third-down conversion chances.
Free ATS Pick
It’s hard to overstate just how fortunate New Mexico was to win last year’s meeting. The Lobos were dominated in pretty much every aspect of the game and Boise State almost won on the last second with a hook and ladder play.
What’s concerning for Boise State here has been the play of Brett Rypien. This was supposed to be the year that Rypien took a big leap forward in Bryan Harsin’s system, but that has yet to transpire. He is still making mistakes he shouldn’t be and hasn’t been impressive outside of the season opening win against Louisiana-Lafayette.
New Mexico isn’t going to pull off the upset this time around, but is going to stick close enough to get the cover. Although it will be difficult for the Lobos to get the offense going, they will break off a big play or two against this defense.
College Football Odds: Broncos 31, Lobos 20
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
