Heading into the season, the Cincinnati Bearcats and Connecticut Huskies were thought to be two of the favorites to win the AAC’s East Division. However, each side now sits at 0-2 in the conference and their dreams of being crowned conference champions are fleeting. Who will win this College Football Week 6 match-up between two teams vying for a potential Big 12 membership? Keep reading to find out who we think will win this pivotal match-up.
This contest in Week 6 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 11:30 a.m. ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Connecticut +3.5
Cincinnati -3.5
Odds Analysis
These two teams have not been kind to bettors this season. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS and its only cover of the season was in its one road game, against Purdue. UConn is even worse with a mark of 0-4-1 ATS, but failed to cover games against Navy and Houston by just a point each.
Connecticut has been an underdog against Cincinnati in each of its last five meetings with the Bearcats and the Huskies have failed to cover in any of those games.
Matchup to Watch
Connecticut has been able to keep all of its games within a score but one, Houston, this season. The defense has been a large reason for that as the offense is averaging less than 5 yards per play so far this season.
The Huskies have struggled against the pass though this season. Connecticut has played two passing teams in each of the last two weeks and was torched by both. Syracuse and Houston each threw for over 400 yards against this team, but Cincinnati might not be able to have the same type of success.
Starting QB Hayden Moore has been out since injuring his ankle against Houston and back-up QB Ross Trail hasn’t been impressive in his stead. Trail was pulled for last year’s starter, Gunner Kiel, last week but he was ineffective as well. It’s unclear which of the three quarterbacks will get the start here, but one of them has to be able to pick up yards for the Bearcats to get a crucial conference road win.
Let-down Look-Ahead Situation
UConn is in the middle of a tough stretch schedule-wise right now. The Huskies traveled to Houston last week and head to Tampa next week to take on South Florida. Houston and South Florida are the two best teams in the AAC and it will be tough for UConn to knock off either of them.
That puts the Huskies in a difficult spot here. They obviously won’t be overlooking the Bearcats as they have lost to them for five straight seasons, but they also know that they need to win out in order to have a chance to win the division.
Free ATS Pick
The key defensively for Cincinnati will be shutting down WR Noel Thomas. The Huskies have no run game to speak of, averaging just 3.2 yards per carry, and rely on Thomas to spread the field for them. Thomas has caught almost as many passes as the rest of the team combined and his yardage totals dwarf the next closest receiver. The Bearcats have showed some weaknesses in the secondary against Purdue and Houston, but both of those offenses have better quarterbacks than UConn.
The under is going to be the best play here. These teams might not combine for 40 points in this game and the total should come out in the high 40s or low 50s. In addition to that, the weather could have a major issue on this game with Hurricane Matthew possibly dumping high winds and rains on Storrs.
As for the game, it’s hard to go against history. Tommy Tuberville’s teams have outscored the Huskies 119-29 over the last three meetings and although the offense won’t put up as many points this time around, it will do enough to get the win and the cover.
College Football Odds: Bearcats 24, Huskies 14
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