The Fresno State Bulldogs and the Nevada Wolf Pack are both in need of a win right now. The teams have a combined record of 3-7 on the season and each come into this Week 6 matchup with losing streaks in tow.
Nevada is at home this week and will be the favorite, but the Fresno State squad, which is 1-4, will be in full desperation mode which is always dangerous. The Wolf Pack are solid favorites to take care of business and will try to jump out to a big lead early on and take care of business.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 8, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Clarence Mackay Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +9
Nevada -9
Over/Under 54.5
Odds Analysis
It’s hard to peg this spread any better. As it currently stands, an even 50 percent of the money is coming in on each team to cover.
The scoring total is pretty low for a college football game and yet the gamblers are still choosing the “under” at a high clip.
Player to Watch
James Butler -- The Nevada running back is the biggest threat on the ground for the Wolf Pack. The junior has accumulated 553 rushing yards and five touchdowns this year.
In last week’s loss to Hawai’i, Butler had his best game yet. He had 21 carries for 168 yards, averaging eight yards a carry.
Butler will be a threat to Fresno State’s defense this week, which has struggled badly against the run. If the Bulldogs can’t slow him down, it could be tough to stay close.
Key Stat
38.2. That’s the number of points per game Fresno State has allowed this season, which is 115th nationally out of 128 teams. The Bulldogs have given up at least 43 points in each of their four losses, including a season-high 52 to Toledo.
Teams haven’t even needed to throw the ball much as Fresno State has done such a poor job of stopping the run.
Even though neither team is above .500, Fresno State’s leaky defense is a big reason why it is nearly a double-digit underdog in this matchup.
Free ATS Pick
Not much has gone right for Fresno State in the start of the 2016 season. The team opened the year with a 43-10 loss to Nebraska and has also lost the last three in a row to Toledo, Tulsa and UNLV.
The Bulldogs only win of the season was in Week 2 against Sacramento State. It’s a little hard to believe that this same program went 11-2 in 2014 and has only won four games since. However, that’s what happens when an NFL-caliber quarterback like Derek Carr departs,
Fresno State doesn’t have much of a running game so the team runs a pass-heavy offense behind quarterback Chason Virgil. The offense is totaling 363 yards a game and averaging only 22.8 points.
Virgil has thrown for 1,169 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions. He has options at receiver in Aaron Peck, Jamire Jordan and Keesean Johnson.
Nevada also comes into this one on a losing streak, having lost back-to-back games to Purdue and Hawai’i. The team has wins over Cal Poly and Buffalo this year.
The Wolf Pack runs a much more balanced offense, but isn’t managing much more production in either phase. Quarterback Tyler Stewart has thrown for 843 yards with six touchdowns and an interception in five games.
Neither team has been overly impressive, but Fresno State has been out of sorts this year. Nevada should be able to move the ball at will on the ground and capture the victory, although not enough points will be scored to top the over/under in this contest.
College Football Odds: Nevada 30, Fresno State 17
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