Arkansas State is in desperate need of a win. After finishing 9-4 in 2015, the Red Wolves haven’t won a single game yet this season in four chances heading into a Week 6 showdown against the Georgia Southern Eagles.
The good news, however, is that Arkansas State is coming off a bye week and will be fully recovered for this mid-week matchup. Georgia Southern is 3-1 coming into this one and will have just four days to regroup for the Red Wolves after falling to Western Michigan last weekend.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Wednesday, October 5, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Georgia Southern -7
Arkansas State +7
Odds Analysis
Georgia Southern is a solid road favorite and the bettors seem confident the Eagles will cover. The money is coming in on them at an 82 percent clip early on.
There is no over-under listed, so check back closer to game day in order to make a wager on the scoring total. It may not be too high since Arkansas State could struggle to score points.
Matchup to Watch
Georgia Southern rushing game vs. Arkansas State defense -- The Eagles are built on their ground attack, as they have racked up an impressive 317.8 yards per game on the ground this season. Arkansas State has had a tough time slowing that aspect itself, giving up 239.3 yards per game rushing.
If Georgia Southern can impose its will on the ground, it should be able to build an early lead and eventually wear down Arkansas State. Quarterback Favian Upshaw will throw when he needs to but prefers to run the ball. He has 43 carries for 254 yards and two touchdowns this season.
If Arkansas State can’t become more stout defensively, Georgia Southern’s playbook will open up and make it very tough for the Red Wolves to see what’s coming.
Player to Watch
Justice Hansen -- If Arkansas State can pick up this upset at home, it will be on the back of its quarterback. Hansen has taken over the past couple of weeks and looked solid.
He has completed 43-of-74 passes this year for 746 yards with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Hansen was 21-of-38 for 424 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in last week’s loss to Central Arkansas, and if he can keep the turnovers in check it could give Arkansas State a fighting chance.
His main target is tight end Blake Mack, who has 20 catches for 360 yards on the season. Mack hauled in eight catches for 142 yards in last week’s loss but is turning into the go-to guy in the passing game.
If Hansen plays well, it will give Arkansas State a much-needed boost after such a slow start to the season.
Free ATS Pick
Georgia Southern started the season with three straight wins, beginning with the Week 1 shutout of Savannah State where the offense put up a season-high 54 points. The Eagles also captured victories over South Alabama and Louisiana Monroe before suffering their first loss to Western Michigan.
Georgia State is 2-0 against Sun Belt opponents so far, currently tied with Troy for first place in the conference.
This game is Arkansas State’s first conference matchup of the season. The reigning Sun Belt champions went undefeated in conference play in 2015 after starting 1-3 last year, and are hoping for a similar fate this time around. The Red Wolves have won four conference championships in the past five seasons, but could be hard-pressed to follow that up with another title.
There was no shame in Arkansas State losing to Auburn in its second game, but losses to Utah State, Toledo and Central Arkansas are worrisome. The Red Wolves will try to turn it around, but they don’t seem to be the same caliber squad.
Georgia Southern looks like the more talented team and should cover this spread.
College Football Odds: Georgia Southern 27, Arkansas State 13
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