The No. 6 Houston Cougars have got to be wondering what they need to do to break into the Top 5. After beating Oklahoma in the season opener, the Cougars have remained stuck in the No. 6 spot for the last five weeks and were just jumped by Washington. The Cougars may need to start running up the score on teams to pick up style points and that’s not good for their opponent in College Football Week 6, the Navy Midshipmen.
This contest in Week 6 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 8, 2016 at 3 p.m. ET at Jack Stephens Field at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Navy +18
Houston -18
Odds Analysis
The Cougars have delighted bettors this season with their strong start. Houston is not only undefeated on the field, but has also covered against every FBS opponent it has faced.
Navy was an underdog for the first time all season last week against Air Force and failed to cover the 7 points. The Midshipmen are now 2-1-1 ATS on the season but only one of those wins was an authoritative one, a 52-16 pasting of FCS Fordham in the first game.
Matchup to Watch
It will be strength against strength when the Midshipmen have the ball on Saturday. Navy has only thrown the ball 55 times all season and prefers to run the triple option as much as possible.
Despite the loss of starting QB Tago Smith for the season, the Midshipmen had been effective running the ball with Will Worth until they ran into Air Force last week. The Falcons have the second best run defense in the country and were able to totally stifle their fellow service academy, holding Navy to a scant 57 yards on 38 carries.
Now that running attack has to face the BEST run defense in the country in Houston. The Cougars have been fantastic stopping the run this year, allowing opponents to pick up just 1.63 yards per carry. Only Oklahoma managed some success against this front and they have arguably the best running back tandem in the country.
Last Year’s Meeting
The Midshipmen were three-point favorites heading into Houston when these two teams squared off for the AAC West title last season, but had no answer for the Cougars offense. Houston put up 555 yards on Navy and scored on eight of its first nine possessions to win by 21 points.
That Navy was only able to keep pace somewhat thanks to the play of dynamic QB Keenan Reynolds. Reynolds had almost 400 total yards of offense against the Cougars last season and had a very effective day through the air. However, without Reynolds calling the shots this season Navy is in a much different situation.
Free ATS Pick
Greg Ward Jr. is something special. Ward has always been a sensational runner, tallying over 2000 yards in his career, but has taken great steps forward as a passer this season as well. For the first time in his four years at Houston, he is completing over 70 percent of his passes and he is on pace to throw for over 3000 yards as well. He can light up a Navy defense that is giving up 8.5 yards per pass so far, despite not having played a passing threat yet.
Houston is going to absolutely demolish Navy here. The Cougars match up extraordinary well with this team and this is a game that Tom Herman can name the score in. Navy is going to struggle to move the ball all game long against this defense and Houston should have no problem putting up points against an inexperienced secondary.
The one hope for Navy is that Hurricane Matthew has an effect on this game with wind and rain disrupting Houston’s passing game. If that fails to happen, it’s going to be a blowout.
College Football Odds: Cougars 45, Midshipmen 17
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