The Florida Gators are expected to be slight home underdogs on Saturday as they host the LSU Tigers in Week 6 action on ESPN. The Tigers began life without Les Miles in spectacular fashion last week as they routed Missouri 42-7. The Tigers did it with Ed Orgeron as interim coach and they did it without Leonard Fournette who was out due to an ankle injury. Derrius Guice rushed for a career-high 163 yards and three TDs in the win. On the other side, the Gators are coming off an ugly 13-6 win over Vanderbilt.
Watch this regular season Week 6 matchup live on Saturday, October 8, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Odds Analysis
There were no early odds on this game as oddsmakers were waiting on the status of Florida quarterback Luke Del Rio. All indications are that Del Rio will return on Saturday from a knee injury. He has missed the past two weeks and the Gators have gone 1-1 with backup Austin Appleby. Head coach Jim McElwain said that Del Rio looked "pretty darned good" last week in practice and he is almost ready. Del Rio is 62-101 for 762 yards and six touchdowns with one interception this season, while Appleby is 44-72 for 470 yards with three touchdowns and one interception.
The Tigers are likely to open up as a small road favorite in this contest with the number expected to be 2 or 2.5.
Matchup to Watch
This game is likely going to be decided by how well the Tigers new look offense does against a stout Florida defense. Forget about what LSU looked like under Les Miles as they look nothing like that now. The Tigers under Orgeron and new offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger are going to play an exciting style as was evident last week in the rout of Missouri. Orgeron "has got everybody flying around the field," Guice said, "We did everything faster tonight. That allowed us to make big plays in the running game, including some that the offensive line broke open." LSU finished with a school-record for an SEC game of 634 total yards.
The Gators have been dominating on defense this season so this will be an excellent matchup on Saturday. The Gators gave up just six points last week in the win over Vanderbilt even though they were without three starting defensive linemen and Florida ranks first in the SEC in total defense, scoring defense and pass defense. The Gators also rank 4th in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 11.6.
Key Stat
The Tigers have won five of the last six meetings in this series including each of the last three. LSU won 35-28 at home last season and just barely covered the 6-point spread. The Tigers won 30-27 at Florida two years ago and covered the spread as a 2.5 point underdog. Both of those games went over the total.
LSU is 1-4 ATS this season but keep in mind that all four of their losses were with Miles as head coach. The Tigers have gone under the total in all five games this season.
Florida is just 1-4 ATS this season including 1-2 ATS at home. The Gators have gone under the total in three of their five games this season.
Free ATS Pick
The Tigers were fantastic on offense last week and they did it even though Fournette was out and now LSU gets him back on Saturday. The Gators won last week even though Del Rio was out due to injury but he is expected back this week.
I think that many people will overreact a bit to Florida’s bad offensive performance last week and think Saturday’s game against LSU will be low scoring. The Tigers are a totally different offensive team now that Miles is done and Florida will score more with Del Rio healthy. I will take this game over the total.
College Football Odds: Tigers 35, Gators 31
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
