The Michigan Wolverines pulled out a squeaker last week over fellow Big 12 power Wisconsin to remain undefeated and in the College Football Playoff hunt. They will get more of a reprieve in Week 6 with a matchup against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Even though Michigan is on the road, it is a huge favorite and should have no trouble emerging with the victory. Rutgers would love to play spoiler but the more realistic scenario might be covering the spread.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 8, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at High Point Solutions Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Michigan -27.5
Rutgers +27.5
Over/Under 53
Odds Analysis
Michigan is a huge favorite, especially for a conference game, but even so the bettors are confident. The Wolverines are currently pulling in an incredible 97 percent of the money as gamblers see a four-touchdown point margin not too much to overcome.
The scoring total looks like it has settled into a good spot, as about 55 percent is taking the “under” for this matchup.
Player to Watch
Wilton Speight - Michigan has a lot of work to do to cover the spread, and one way to do it is to get a standout performance from its quarterback. Speight has been solid this season, completing 92-of-146 for 1,094 yards with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions.
He only saw spot duty last year but has hit the ground running as a full-time starter. Speight’s best game came in Week 2, when he threw for 312 yards and four touchdowns in a 51-14 win over Central Florida.
Speight wasn’t great last week in a close 14-7 win over Wisconsin, but luckily the defense was able to help bail him out.
Key Stat
12.4. That’s the points per game allowed by Michigan’s stout defense. The Wolverines have been good on both sides of the ball, but dominating defensively is always a particularly good recipe for success.
The team’s points allowed is sixth in the country, as the Wolverines have held Hawaii, Penn State, Central Florida and Wisconsin to 14 points or less. The only team that found some success was Colorado, although the Wolverines still pulled off a 45-28 victory in that one.
Michigan is fifth in the country in total defense, allowing only 247.6 yards per game. That has been against some offenses better than what Rutgers rolls out, so it would not be a surprise to see the Wolverines’ defense put together a dominant performance in this one.
Free ATS Pick
Michigan had a lot of hype around it heading into 2016 and has thus far lived up to it, playing well on both sides of the ball. The Wolverines will have some big conference clashes coming up in the near future but should be able to cruise in this one.
Rutgers is only 2-3 this season and is coming off a 58-0 pasting at the hands of Ohio State. The Scarlet Knights have only scored seven total points in conference play, losing to Iowa 14-7 in addition to the shutout by the Buckeyes.
If Rutgers can cover this spread, it will be on the back of quarterback Chris Laviano. He has thrown for 680 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions but will face a really stiff test against Michigan.
The Wolverines are clearly the more talented team in this matchup, but the question isn’t whether they will win, but if the spread will be covered. Rutgers is coming off an embarrassing loss, but expect a better performance this time.
Michigan could start slowly in this one after last week’s big win, which could be the difference at the end. Take Rutgers and all of those points, while the “under” is the right call in this matchup.
College Football Odds: Michigan 34, Rutgers 13
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