Texas State has two wins on the season and its only two losses are to ranked opponents, but is still a pretty substantial underdog. The Bobcats will aim to spring the upset and keep Georgia State undefeated.
This contest in Week 6 of the regular season will go down Saturday, October 8, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Georgia Dome.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Texas State +10
Georgia State -10
Odds Analysis
This spread may actually be a bit too low based on Georgia State’s winless mark. It is going to keep amateur bettors off guard, but so far the smart ones are on the spread. Georgia State is getting 65 percent of the action early on to cover.
Key stat
Six. That’s the amount of points Georgia State lost by to No. 9 Wisconsin on Sept. 17, with a final score of 23-17. While the Panthers remained winless after the loss, it was a great example of their level of competitiveness against an elite college football program.
Georgia State actually led the game by four points in the fourth quarter until the Badgers picked up 10 points in the final eight minutes to escape with the victory.
The news hasn’t been as good for Texas State in its matchups against ranked opponents. The Bobcats were demolished by Arkansas by a score of 42-3 on the same day and then lost to Houston 64-3 a week later.
While all three of the games resulted in losses, Georgia State equipped itself much better and is a big reason why it is the favorite in this matchup.
Matchup to Watch
Georgia State rushing game against Texas State defense -- This matchup could be the difference in this game. Georgia State has struggled badly rushing the ball this year, averaging only 56.3 yards per game on the ground, although it has been against some good competition.
Kyler Neal will aim to get on track as he has just 91 yards rushing on 31 carries thus far this year. This could be a more fruitful game for the ground game, as Texas State is not stout in that category.
The Bobcats have allowed opponents to rush for 224.3 yards per game.
Free ATS Pick
Georgia State’s numbers do not good, and that’s not a huge surprise since it is 0-4. However, there have been inklings of competency within the losses, especially hanging tough against Wisconsin.
The Panthers must turn it up starting now, and this is a winnable game. Georgia State offense may only be averaging 13.8 points per game, but Texas State is allowing nearly 45, so it should get on track here.
On the flip side, the Texas State hopes to score enough to give the team a chance at pulling the upset. Quarterback Tyler Jones has been pretty good this year, completing 100-of-152 passes for 1,078 yards with nine touchdowns against four interceptions.
If the Bobcats can hit their scoring average of about 27 points per game, it could keep them around in this showdown.
A look at the stats doesn’t tell the whole story in this matchup. Georgia State’s numbers look poor, but it has hung around against some quality opponents. The Panthers should break through in this one, and they won’t just get their first win but will also cover the spread.
Texas State will drop to below .500 as its offense will have trouble moving the ball consistently.
College Football Odds: Georgia State 27, Texas State 16
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