The Appalachian State Mountaineers started the season with a bang, almost knocking off the Tennessee Volunteers in Knoxville in what would have been one of the biggest wins ever for a Sun Belt Conference team. The Mountaineers ended up falling just short, but are 3-0 against non-Power Five teams and are considered one of the favorites to win the conference crown. They will face a mid-week test in College Football Week 7 action when they travel to take on the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns.
Watch this Week 7 match-up live on Wednesday, October 12, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Cajun Field. This game will be broadcast on ESPN2.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Louisiana-Lafayette +10.5
Appalachian State -10.5
Odds Analysis
Appalachian State is 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season, and have covered two of the three games in which it was a favorite. The Ragin’ Cajuns meanwhile are 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS, but have lost two heartbreakers on the road over the last couple weeks.
Matchup to Watch
Louisiana-Lafayette has one of the best rush defenses in the country. The Ragin’ Cajuns are allowing just 2.93 yards per carry thus far in 2015 and although some might scoff at their level of competition, they had success early in the year against Boise State as well.
Even though the Broncos have one of the top rushing offenses in the country, they were held to just a shade over 4 yards a carry against this Ragin’ Cajuns defense and the only team to hit that mark against them all season. This defense has been stout against all their other opponents and that might pose a problem for an Appalachian State team that prefers to keep the ball on the ground.
The Mountaineers run the ball on average 47.4 times per game and prefer to slowly wear down an opponent’s defense over the course of the game. For a team that runs that much though, they are just average in how well they can move it. Appalachian State runs for just 4.51 yards per carry, a number that is 60th nationally.
Key Stat
The Mountaineers have one of the most opportunistic defenses in the country, having picked off opposing quarterbacks nine times this season. Appalachian State has intercepted a pass on 1 in every 20 throws from their opponent, a mark that is one of the best in the nation.
That is not good news for Louisiana-Lafayette and Anthony Jennings. After not throwing an interception in his first two starts, the LSU transfer has thrown two picks in each of his last three games. He has thrown just as many touchdowns as interceptions in his last three starts and that is a big reason why the Ragin’ Cajuns are 1-2 in that stretch.
Free ATS Pick
Louisiana-Lafayette is a bit unfortunate to be 2-3 at this point. The Ragin’ Cajuns last two losses have been in multiple overtime games and their defense just wasn’t able to stop the opposing offense in those drives. On the six OT possessions, Tulane and New Mexico State scored five touchdowns and that killed their chances to win.
If Appalachian State is going to win it needs a solid performance from Taylor Lamb. Lamb has only had one solid game all season, a 3 TD performance against Akron, and if you take that out, he is averaging just 137 yards a game through the air and has more interceptions than touchdowns.
This is going to be an ugly low-scoring affair. Neither one of these teams can move the ball with authority and the defenses has been relatively stout. The one weak spot is Louisiana-Lafayette’s secondary, but it’s questionable whether or not Lamb will be able to take advantage of it. In a spot like this, it’s better to grab the home team and the points, so take the 10.5 and Louisiana-Lafayette.
College Football Odds: Mountaineers 20, Ragin’ Cajuns 13
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