The Arizona State Sun Devils and Colorado Buffaloes have both turned in some surprisingly good campaigns up to this point in the season and are in the thick of the race in the Pac-12 South. They face off in a crucial Week 7 matchup this week which will help clear up a crowded group atop the pack.
Even though the Sun Devils have only lost once this season, they are significant road underdogs. Arizona State has several close wins to its name and the oddsmakers aren’t buying the team as a legitimate power, and it also has real worries at quarterback. Colorado, meanwhile, might be 4-2 but has looked better overall.
This matchup in Week 7 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 8 p.m. ET at Folsom Field.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arizona State +13
Colorado -13
Over/Under 62.5
Odds Analysis
Even though Colorado certainly looks like the better team, this is still quite the spread. Even as significant favorites, the Buffaloes are taking in more than 80 percent of the action to cover.
The scoring total is lower than expected despite Arizona State’s explosive offense and leaky defense. The bettors are hitting the “under” more commonly, but that looks like the wrong decision. Pound the “over” in this one.
Injury Report
The Sun Devils picked up a nice win over the UCLA Bruins last week but lost backup quarterback Brady White for the season due to injury. The hope is that starter Manny Wilkins can get back for this matchup.
Wilkins suffered a high ankle sprain two weeks ago against USC and wore a boot on the sidelines when the Sun Devils faced the Bruins. Even if he can play, the ankle injury could keep Wilkins from being as mobile as he likes.
Wilkins has completed 97-of-149 passes for 1,233 yards with five touchdowns and four interceptions this season. He has also added 254 yards rushing and four touchdowns.
If Wilkins can’t play, Arizona State would have to rely on fourth-string quarterback DIllon Sterling-Cole. He has only taken two snaps this season, and as a freshman, is probably not yet ready for such a starring role. Expect Colorado to send the pressure early and often if Sterling-Cole has to play in place of Wilkins.
Matchup to Watch
Colorado passing offense vs. Arizona State secondary -- The Sun Devils have been awful against the pass in 2016. Granted, they have faced a pair of Air Raid offenses in Texas Tech and California, but still, allowing 404.3 passing yards per game is not a good sign.
Buffaloes quarterback Steven Montez will aim to take advantage of that leaky secondary. He has completed 73-of-116 passes for 940 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions on the season.
Colorado’s leading receiver is Shay Fields. He has 25 catches for 492 yards and five touchdowns on the season and could be in line for a big day.
Free ATS Pick
The Sun Devils continue to defy expectations, with last week the most recent example. They were double-digit home underdogs against UCLA but still pulled out a 23-20 victory. This isn’t expected to keep up, and a blowout loss to the Colorado would take some wind out of their sails.
That’s what the oddsmakers believe, but Arizona State will aim to pull off another big upset.
Colorado has a very nice point differential and has competed well against tough foes. The Buffaloes might be the best team in the Pac-12 North, but must keep stacking up wins as the top of the standings is crowded.
While the Buffaloes should win, this spread is too high if Wilkins can play. Keep an eye on his availability, but Arizona State should make this one competitive as long as their signal-caller has the reins.
College Football Odds: Colorado 38, Arizona State 30
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