The BYU Cougars are coming off a strong victory last week at Michigan State, scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter to pull off the road upset. BYU has won two straight to get back to .500 on the season and will aim to keep it rolling this week against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Mississippi State was trounced last week by Auburn but should have a better chance in this one as BYU isn’t quite as talented. Even so, the Cougars are solid favorites following last week’s showing.
Watch this regular season Week 7 matchup live on Friday, October 14, 2016, at 10:15 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Mississippi State +7
BYU -7
Odds Analysis
The bettors are on the BYU train, as nearly 70 percent of the early money is backing the Cougars. BYU must win pretty convincingly since the spread is a touchdown, and it’s something it has done only once in six games, with two wins coming by two points apiece.
Letdown Spot
This could be a precarious position for BYU to be in. The Cougars are riding high after pasting Michigan State and now go home as the clear favorites. That’s all and good, but the motivation has to be there.
Mississippi State is only 2-3 on the year but played LSU tough and has some nice pieces. This one could shape up as a low-scoring battle, which means one small mistake here or there could mean the difference between a win or a loss.
BYU has been in close games every time out this year and shouldn’t get too cocky, as Mississippi State can pull the upset if the Cougars aren’t careful.
Matchup to Watch
N. Dylan Fitzgerald -- The Bulldogs’ quarterback could be the key to how this game turns out. The BYU defense has been very good this year, holding four opponents to 20 points or fewer.
Mississippi State doesn’t have the most explosive offense, so plenty will be put on the shoulders of the sophomore signal-caller. Fitzgerald has thrown for 784 yards with seven touchdowns and two interceptions on the season, doing a nice job of limiting turnovers through the air.
He has also done well on the ground, carrying the ball 64 times for 390 yards. Fitzgerald ran for 195 yards in an early win against South Carolina and threw for 305 last time out against UMass, showing his versatility depending on how defenses want to attack him.
He is 2-2 as a starter and should help keep Mississippi State in the game if he plays well.
Free ATS Pick
BYU has picked it up of late by winning two in a row, but this certainly seems like a mid-tier college football team. The Cougars are averaging about 2.5 more points per game than their opponent and outgaining them by 16 yards per contest.
Those aren’t dominant numbers, so don’t let the most recent win over a reeling Michigan State team fool you. BYU is a solid team that can certainly win this game, but the spread is too high.
Mississippi State doesn’t have a great record and has been outscored by its opponents this season, but also plays in the toughest conference in the nation. The SEC foes are tough week in and week out, and while this one won’t be easy, the Bulldogs are used to playing talented opponents in tough environments.
Mississippi State had a rough loss in its opener to South Alabama, but has looked better of late. The Bulldogs should push this one down to the wire and it could go either way. The spread is an easy call, and the money line for Mississippi State is an intriguing choice.
College Football Odds: BYU 24, Mississippi State 21
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