What a monumental win that was for the Navy Midshipmen! Navy closed as a 15.5-point home underdog last week against the No. 6 Houston Cougars and almost everyone, including yours truly, didn’t give them a chance to win. However, the Midshipmen came out on fire and gashed the Cougars for over 300 yards on the ground en route to a 46-40 win. Now Navy has to turn around on a short week and take on the East Carolina Pirates on Thursday night of College Football Week 7 action.
Watch this Week 7 match-up live on Thursday, October 13, 2016, at 7:30 p.m. ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
East Carolina +3
Navy -3
Odds Analysis
Although Navy suffered its first big loss two weeks ago against Air Force, the Midshipmen are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS on the year. They are also 2-0-1 ATS in AAC play this season and two of their three games have ended well over the total.
On the other hand, East Carolina is in a bit of a tailspin right now. Things were looking food for the Pirates after they knocked off North Carolina State at home in the second week of the season, but since then they have lost four straight and failed to cover a single one. Four of their six games have gone over the number this season.
Key Stat
It’s no secret that Navy loves to run the ball. The Midshipmen have run the ball 51.8 times a game this season and are running it well. Navy is averaging 5.07 yards per carry and racked up tons of yardage against a Houston run defense that was the best in the country coming into last Saturday’s match-up. QB Will Worth has proven to be a good pitchman and has run the triple-option extremely well.
They will be facing an East Carolina defense that has had some major issues stopping the running game. The Pirates have allowed 5.2 yards per carry this year and were shredded by both UCF and USF in the last two weeks, giving up over 500 yards on the ground to the two Florida schools.
Let-Down/Look Ahead Spot
This game is in a tricky spot for Navy. This team just pulled off one of the biggest wins against a team not named Notre Dame in school history and the campus is ecstatic. Classes have already been canceled Monday as a result and the players will be getting pats on the back all week long.
Now though the team will have just two days to prepare for an East Carolina team that throws the ball all over the place. The Pirates have thrown for 2200 yards this season and have moved the chains through the air on Power Five teams as well as AAC ones.
In addition to that, the Midshipmen have to be looking ahead to a four-week stretch that includes a road game at South Florida, a neutral-site game against Notre Dame, and home tilts against Memphis and Tulsa. With those teams on deck, it would be easy for Navy to look past ECU.
Free ATS Pick
No one is talking about the season Zay Jones is having for East Carolina, but he is poised to set NCAA records. Jones had a 22-catch game against South Carolina, one shy of the single-game record, a few weeks ago and has an eye-popping 84 receptions this season. That number is 18 more than the next closest player and puts him on pace to smash Freddie Barnes’ record of 155 catches in a season.
This game should have plenty of scoring. Navy doesn’t have a playmaker in the secondary that can stop Jones and East Carolina should be able to throw all over this team. Conversely, ECU will have a lot of trouble stopping the run and facing the triple-option on a short week is always tough.
East Carolina has caught some bad breaks this year. The Pirates outplayed both South Carolina and UCF, but lost due to turnovers and aren’t a bad team like their record might indicate. This is a great spot for ECU and the Pirates should be able to pull off the upset.
College Football Odds: Pirates 37, Midshipmen 34
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