For the first time ever, there will be not one, but two football games being played during the Texas State Fair. The Red River Showdown went on as planned last week and this week the Cotton Bowl will host the Air Force Falcons and the New Mexico Lobos in a battle of Mountain West sides. This College Football Week 7 matchup is meant to entice support from all the Air Force families in the region and should draw a heavy Air Force crowd.
Kickoff for this Week 7 game is set for Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX. The game will be broadcast on ESPNN.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Air Force -15
New Mexico +15
Over/Under 59.5
Odds Analysis
The Lobos are off to a slow start this season. After a season-opening win and cover against South Dakota, New Mexico has failed to cover four in a row. One of the failed covers was a heart-breaker as the Lobos were in front of the number for much of the game against Rutgers but were back-doored by a field goal late.
Air Force is sitting at 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on the season following a rough road loss to Wyoming as a 13.5-point favorite last week. The Falcons are 10-3 ATS over their last 13 home games though and the over is 8-1 in their last 9 games against Mountain West opponents.
Matchup to Watch
The best thing to watch in this one will be strength versus strength when New Mexico tries to run the ball against this Air Force defense.
The Lobos have the best rushing attack in the nation, averaging 6.44 yards per carry and 354 yards per game on the ground. New Mexico is able to do this by running the triple option with a twist. Instead of the quarterback taking snaps under center, he takes them from the pistol formation and that little wrinkle has been tough for opposing defenses to figure out. No one has more than 400 yards rushing, but seven players have at least 100 yards on the season.
That attack will face stiff resistance in the form of Air Force’s defense. The Falcons run defense is the second best in the country, allowing just 2.46 yards per carry and 80.2 yards per game on the ground. It completely stifled Navy’s vaunted rushing attack and although Wyoming scored a big win last week, the ground game was held in check.
Last Year’s Meeting
When these teams squared off last year, it was New Mexico’s offense that won the battle and the game for the Lobos. Bob Davie’s side put up 512 total yards of offense and lit up this run defense for 6.7 yards per carry. It had six plays of 40 yards or more against Air Force and put 47 points on the board.
Conversely, the defense was able to force mistakes from Air Force’s passing game. Air Force threw three interceptions and completed less than 40 percent of its pass attempts and that helped ultimately tipped the scales in favor of New Mexico.
Free ATS Pick
The good news for the Lobos is that it has already had success against a great run defense this year when they took on Boise State. Although the final score didn’t work out in their favor, New Mexico was able to grind out 6.3 yards per carry and finished with 382 rushing yards in the game. The Lobos will have to avoid the penalties that put them in bad positions in that game this time around for a chance to win.
It's a bit surprising why Air Force is such a large favorite here. The Falcons had trouble stopping this attack last season and no team has stopped it yet this year either. Air Force has a sketchy passing game as well if it falls behind early and it’s tough to lay 15 with that in mind. Take the Lobos and the points.
College Football Odds: Falcons 38, Lobos 31
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