Could the Idaho Vandals make it to a bowl game in their penultimate season at the FBS level? Idaho has been one of the biggest victims of being conference realignment, trying to find a home after the WAC disbanded, but after a few years in the Sun Belt, the school will move down to join the Big Sky Conference at the FCS level in 2018. In College Football Week 7, they will be facing the other team that joined them in the Sun Belt that is now being asked to leave due to travel costs, the New Mexico State Aggies.
Kickoff for this Week 7 game is set for Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 5 p.m. ET at the ASUI-Kibbie Dome This game will be broadcast on ESPN3.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Idaho -6
New Mexico State +6
Over/Under 67
Odds Analysis
Idaho is 3-3 SU, but just 2-4 ATS with some bad losses against the number this season. The Vandals were blown out and didn’t even come close to covering against the Washington schools and have looked bad at home as well. Idaho got stomped by Troy at home two weeks ago and barely hung on to defeat FCS Montana State as a 14.5-point favorite. Both home games have fallen well short of the total for Idaho this season.
New Mexico State has yet to be a favorite this season but has covered three spreads this season and has two outright wins as an underdog. However, both of those wins came at home for New Mexico State and this team has been much worst on the road, losing by at least 16 points in each affair.
Key Stat
The Aggies’ defense is absolutely dreadful by any measure. This unit is the second-worst in the country according to S&P+ Ratings and they are allowing 6.45 yards per play. They have given up 128 first downs in just 5 games this season and are allowing opponents to convert on almost half their third-down conversions.
Making matters worse, their coverage teams do not help this defense out. New Mexico State’s opponents are averaging 17.44 yards per punt return and 32.27 yards per kickoff return, giving them excellent field position. That puts even more pressure on a defense that has trouble getting stops and leads to lots of points for opposing offenses.
Last Year’s Meeting
It was an absolutely wild affair when these two schools met on Halloween last season. There were 1210 total yards of offense and a furious comeback from the Aggies to send the game to overtime where NMSU pulled it out. That win sparked a three-game winning streak and gave this team confidence.
Both defenses were atrocious last season and it looks to be the same this year. The Vandals gave up a whopping 8.1 yards per play while the Aggies allowed 7.3 yards per play. Plenty of players got in on the action and the game sailed over the total.
Free ATS Pick
One of the main keys to this one will be whether or not New Mexico State can get its running game going. The Aggies have really struggled to run the ball this season, and even in their two wins, the running game was a non-threat as the team hoped that Tyler Rogers would be able to lead them to victory. Betting on Rogers is like playing with fire though as he could throw for 300 yards or he could throw three interceptions. His inconsistency means this team can knock off a random Sun Belt team, but makes it hard to count on.
However, you can count on the Vandals to move the ball on the ground with Aaron Duckworth. He unsurprisingly struggled against Power Five schools, but has three 90-yard games and four touchdowns against non-Power Five teams and can move the chains. He will light up an Aggies’ defense allowing 5.54 yards per carry and Idaho will get a big win.
College Football Odds: Bulldogs 41, Minutemen 14
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