The Michigan State Spartans’ horrific slide continued last week in a blowout home loss to Brigham Young. Michigan State hopes to get back on track and pick up its first Big Ten victory in a home game against the Northwestern Wildcats in Week 7.
Even though the Spartans have struggled mightily of late, they are still the favorites despite a 2-3 overall record. Northwestern has the same record but has been better of late with two wins in its last three outings.
This matchup in Week 7 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Northwestern +4.5
Michigan State -4.5
Over/Under 42.5
Odds Analysis
While Michigan State has struggled badly recently, it is still favored to capture this home contest. The bettors are still on board, as 75 percent of the money is on the Spartans to bounce back and cover the spread.
The “over” is the more popular choice, with 57 percent of the action believing that the scoring total will be surpassed. This is one of the lowest “over-under” totals you will see this season in college football.
Key Stat
3. As in three straight losses for Michigan State. The Spartans will be returning to East Lansing in desperate need of a win this week
After starting 2-0 including a win over Notre Dame, Michigan State has come undone in the last few weeks, falling to Wisconsin, Indiana and a struggling BYU team. With games against Michigan and Ohio State coming up, the Spartans need to turn things around sooner than later.
The Spartans were ranked nationally after the quick start but stumbled out of the polls as the losses mounted. Michigan State won’t be making the College Football Playoff and is an extreme longshot to win the conference. The Spartans already seem reduced to fighting for a bowl berth, and need this home win against Northwestern.
Player to Watch
Justin Jackson - The Northwestern running back comes into this game on a high note. The junior had a big impact in the Wildcats’ win over Iowa two weeks ago, carrying the ball 26 times for 171 yards and a touchdown.
Jackson broke loose for a 58-yard touchdown run in the third quarter against Iowa in the 38-31 win and will be looking to build upon that performance this week. He has accumulated 510 yards on the ground this year and is averaging 4.7 yards a carry.
Northwestern’s offense has been poor throughout the season, averaging only 20.6 points per game. The Michigan State defense is good, so Jackson’s success would be a huge boon and could help pull the upset.
That will be easier said than done as almost everyone assumes this will be a defensive battle.
Free ATS Pick
Both of these teams entered the season with high expectations after putting up nice 2015 campaigns. Northwestern’s was derailed quickly with surprising losses to Western Michigan and Illinois State to start the year.
The Wildcats are 1-1 in conference play but realistically don’t have the talent to compete against powers like Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. Northwestern is trying to get back to a bowl game and would benefit greatly from a win in this one.
The Wildcats will rely on a defense which is only allowing 19.8 points per game. The Spartans’ defense is giving up 25.2 points per game but 50 yards less of total offense than Northwestern, so it will be interesting to see which team emerges victorious.
It has been a really tough stretch for the Spartans, who went from a team with national title aspirations to unranked. Finally, this team should be able to get back on track. Northwestern has some good pieces but won’t be able to hang by the end of this one.
Take Michigan State to cover the spread after some recent troubles.
College Football Odds: Michigan State 24, Northwestern 17
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