How hard are the San Diego State Aztecs kicking themselves right now? A shocking loss to South Alabama likely cost this team any chance at the Group of Five spot in a New Year’s Day bowl that is all of a sudden wide open after Houston’s loss to Navy. The Aztecs are still considered one of the favorites in the Mountain West though and will look to affirm their status against the Fresno State Bulldogs in Week 7 College Football.
Watch this Week 7 match-up live on Friday, October 14, 2016, at 10 p.m. ET at Bulldog Stadium. This game will be broadcast on CBSS.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Fresno State +16.5
San Diego State -16.5
Odds Analysis
San Diego State was on the losing end of one of the biggest upsets of the season when it lost to South Alabama as a 19-point favorite. The Aztecs are 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS on the season and have had three of four games against FBS opponents go over the betting total.
The Bulldogs have had a brutal start to the year. They have lost all five of their games against FBS opponents and are getting outscored by an average of 21 points. They are 2-3 ATS however, after scoring a late touchdown to cover the spread against Nevada.
Player to Watch
Donnel Pumphrey is off to a spectacular senior campaign as the workhorse in Rocky Long’s offense. Long likes to give the ball to Pumphrey as much as possible and Pumphrey rewards that decision. Through five games, Pumphrey has ran for 891 yards and 9 touchdowns and is averaging almost 7 yards per carry.
He has also been solid at catching the ball out of the backfield this season, giving the Aztecs another dynamic to work with. He is set to eclipse his previous career-high of 28 catches in a season by over half that amount and is by far the best playmaker this team has.
However, as great as he has been, he has yet to have a big game against Fresno State. Pumphrey has only managed 255 yards and one touchdown in three games against the Bulldogs and two of those ended in losses. He will look to make his mark in his last game against Fresno State.
Match-up to Watch
Tim DeRuyter has given his freshman QB Chason Virgil a chance to see what he is made of and Virgil has produced mixed results. Virgil has thrown nine touchdowns compared to just four interceptions this season and has shown he can hit the deep ball with big plays against Toledo, Tulsa, and UNLV. However, he is completing just 48.6 percent of his passes this season and that number was lower until his performance against Nevada last week.
He will now go against one of the best secondaries he will face this season. The Aztecs are ball-hawkers who aren’t afraid to man up on anyone, confident they can get the job done. They are led by last year’s Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year in Damontae Kazee, and have snagged eight interceptions this season. Their numbers don’t look great at first glance, but when you take out their game against Cal, they are giving up a scant 133.5 yards per game through the air.
Free ATS Pick
It’s usually unwise to lay double digits on the road in college football. Traditionally, one of the best angles has been to bet on home double digit dogs and that has paid off solidly over the years. To go against that trend, you better have a good reason.
This game is one of those instances. San Diego State matches up very well with Fresno State in every area. The Aztecs back seven will be able to confuse the freshman into mistakes throughout the game and Pumphrey should explode on a defense that is giving up 5.3 yards per carry. San Diego State is going to win this one in a rout.
College Football Odds: Tigers 31, Green Wave 21
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