The Sun Belt Conference has a history of teams going winless in out-of-conference play, only to turn around and end up winning the conference title. The Arkansas State Red Wolves hope to be the next in a long line of teams to achieve that feat. Arkansas State failed to take a game in its non-conference slate, even falling to FCS Central Arkansas, but upset Georgia Southern last week and are 1-0 in conference. Now the Red Wolves will host the South Alabama Jaguars in College Football Week 7 and try to move to 2-0 in Sun Belt play.
This matchup in Week 7 will take place on Saturday, October 15, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Centennial Bank Stadium. This game will be broadcast on ESPN3.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Arkansas State -6
South Alabama +6
Odds Analysis
The Red Wolves not only went 0-4 straight up in September, but 0-4 ATS as well. Not only that, but they were getting blown out losing by more than two scores against the spread in three of the four games. Under has cashed in four of Arkansas State’s five games this season despite the defense giving up at least 26 in every game.
South Alabama has been a strange team this season. The Jaguars are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS, but those two ATS wins were massive. They were 18.5-point underdogs to San Diego State and 27.5-point underdogs to Mississippi State and defeated both outright.
Match-up to Watch
South Alabama has been awful at running the ball this season. The Jaguars haven’t had more than a 40-yard run from any of their backs this season and are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry on the ground.
Those numbers are even worse if you take out their performance against FCS Nicholls State as well. Accounting for just their performances against its four FBS opponents, the Jaguars were only able to crack 3 yards per carry against one team, Mississippi State, and failed to move the ball against conference foes Georgia Southern and Louisiana-Lafayette.
Now the Jaguars will face an opponent that has had some issues on defense and hasn’t shown that they are able to stop the run. The Red Wolves are giving up 4.57 yards per carry on the season and have been porous all season long.
Key Stat
Speaking of Arkansas State’s defense, the unit has been plagued by failing to get stops at critical times. The Red Wolves are one of the worst third-down defenses in the country through five games. They are allowing opponents to convert on third-down 48.8 percent of the time and that leads to this unit staying on the field and allowing points later in the drive.
Arkansas State has issues bowing up in the red zone as well, with the defense allowing opponents to score on 21 of their 23 opportunities thus far. If the Red Wolves keep allowing teams to pick up first downs and extending drives that lead to points, they are going to have a tough time as favorites here.
Free ATS Pick
When these two teams met last year Arkansas State exploded in the fourth quarter in a game that was a lot closer than the final indicated. South Alabama led 31-20 with 13 minutes left to play, but then the Red Wolves scored four touchdowns in the next 5:17 of action to run away with it. The last two of those scores were defensive touchdowns that completely ruined any chance of a Jaguars comeback and a misleading final.
This time around, South Alabama is going to have revenge on its mind. Although Arkansas State was one of the preseason favorites, the home team has not played up to form. The Jaguars are battle-tested with two big wins and had a week off to prepare themselves fully for this one. Look for a late Jaguars score to flip the script from last season’s loss.
College Football Odds: Jaguars 31, Red Wolves 27
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