The Boise State Broncos have long been one of the most dominant small-conference teams in the country, and this year is no exception. They are 6-0 on the season with a pair of wins over Pac-12 foes, but will get one of their tougher tests of the season against the BYU Cougars in Week 8.
Boise State is the favorite as it has the more impressive numbers and home field advantage, although BYU has some nice wins this year and can’t be counted out.
This contest in Week 8 of the regular season will go down Thursday, October 20, 2016, at 7 p.m. ET at Lane Stadium.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
BYU +7
Boise State -7
Odds Analysis
BYU has been in a ton of close games already this season, which is something to keep in mind when it comes to the spread. Bettors certainly know this, and the Cougars are the ones who have gotten most of the action to cover.
More than 56 percent of the early money is choosing BYU, as anything less than a touchdown margin would be a nice payoff for those gamblers.
Matchup to Watch
BYU running game vs. Boise State defense - If the Cougars plan on springing the upset, they would be well served to run the ball well in this one. BYU has averaged more than 200 yards per game on the ground this season.
It has been led by Jamaal Williams, who has 165 carries for 942 yards and 10 touchdowns. Williams has four games of 160 rushing yards or more this season, including an astounding 286-yard, five-touchdown performance against Toledo three weeks ago.
Boise State gives up only 142 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are more talented overall, but if the BYU ground game gets going, it opens up the passing attack and makes like tougher on the defense.
The Broncos figure to stack the box at points in order to force the Cougars to go to the air.
Key Stat
5. That’s the number of wins these teams have combined for against Power 5 conference foes. BYU has played all but one of their games against such competition, splitting their six affairs.
The Cougars have beaten Arizona, Michigan State and Mississippi State, with the latter two victories part of their three-game win streak heading into this contest. BYU has lost to West Virginia, UCLA and Utah, although all came by three points or less and all three of those teams have shown to be talented this year.
Boise State has only played two against big-conference foes but showed very well. The Broncos knocked off Washington State, 31-28, and then defeated Oregon State by two touchdowns.
These two programs are no strangers to playing tough competition and have shown their worth by holding up well once again.
Free ATS Pick
BYU’s three losses have come by a combined seven points, so this is certainly a team that cannot be taken for granted. The Cougars picked up a big-time win at Michigan State a few weeks back and followed that up with a double-overtime win over Mississippi State last time out.
The Cougars are 6-1 against the spread this season, including a perfect 4-0 on the road, which is something to keep in mind.
Boise State hasn’t been as good against the spread but has taken care of business every time on the moneyline. That might be the way to go in this one, since the Cougars have shown the ability to hang with some quality opponents.
The Broncos should be able to move the ball enough to grab a lead and hold on for the victory, but it won’t be easy. Take Boise State in a close one, although BYU is the easy choice against the spread.
College Football Odds: Boise State 21, BYU 20
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