The Central Florida Knights held a 10-point lead over Temple at the half in their last game, well on their way to a 2-0 start in conference play. The Knights, however, couldn’t hold on as the offense came to a screeching halt and the defense couldn’t stop the bleeding before the Owls got the win in the final seconds. UCF is now looking to bounce back in a big way as they journey north to take on the Connecticut Huskies for just the third time ever in pivotal Week 8 meeting for both teams.
Watch this regular season Week 8 matchup live on Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 12 p.m. ET at Pratt & Whitney Stadium at Rentschler Field.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Central Florida -3.5
Connecticut +3.5
Over/Under 48
Odds Analysis
The road team is the favorite here in this AAC Week 8 showdown. The spread opened at two-points in the Knights’ favor, but has nearly doubled since as bettors remain leery on the Huskies. This is also one of the lower spreads as smart money is on defense controlling this game. After starting at an already depressed 51, the total is now down to 48.
It’s been an up-and-down season for UCF so it’s hard to know what to expect from them, but the team’s played better than a season ago and is 4-2 ATS this season. The total has been hit-or-miss for the Knights, but the under has paid out three times in UConn’s last five games.
Key Stat
The total for this game is dropping as noted above and for very good reason. Neither one of these teams are particularly successful on third down opportunities with the Knights converting on just 31.6-percent of third-down chances and the Huskies converting on 34.9-percent, ranking No. 119 and 101 respectively.
As always, winning the crucial third down battles is paramount. Each team needs to find a way to move the chains, but with neither team able to do so effectively at this point in the season, that does lend itself to a lower scoring affair.
If you want to give the third-down advantage on team, you’d have to lean in favor of UCF despite their lower conversion rate. They’ve been able to hang tough in games against some strong opposition, but more so than that, while they struggle to convert on third downs, their defense does a great job on preventing the other team to convert their chances.
In fact, the Knights rank No. 8 in the nation in opponent conversion percentage, allowing the opposition to convert a mere 28.6 percent of their chances. For comparison sake, the Huskies are in the middle of the pack on stopping the opposition on third down, allowing a conversion percentage of 42-percent.
Last Meeting
The overall team stats favor the Knights on Saturday as UCF’s defense matches up well with UConn’s and their offense has outperformed the Huskies’ by a considerable margin.
Nevertheless, the game still needs to be played on the gridiron and the last time these two teams met, it didn’t go so well for the Knights. That could get into a team’s head. It could also serve as motivation, particularly for a team like Central Florida that’s had its share of frustration this season, too, with a couple of near-wins, turned-losses against Temple and Maryland.
Regardless, last season was dark times for UCF and the Huskies headed to the Sunshine State ready for a big game and they got just that. Just over a year ago, UConn topped UCF 40-13. The Huskies dominated the Knights. While Central Florida had one more first down than UConn, they were trounced in total yards. They were absolutely shutdown on the ground and while they did gain 255 in the air, they also surrendered three interceptions. They also gave up a fumble.
With the advantage on turnovers, UConn was able to control time of possession, too. The defense won the game for the Huskies.
Free ATS Pick
Look for the defenses to keep the opposition in check with the ball changing hands often after unsuccessful attempts to convert a first down. Don’t expect many big turnovers, however. The Huskies have forced only seven turnovers this year though they’ve given eight. UCF has forced a few more and given back a few more.
Neither UCF nor UConn can be called anything but inconsistent, but the Knights have been the more constantly competitive team—save their trip to Ann Arbor. That’s a bit of a surprise for a team that was winless in 2015, but is nevertheless true.
Statistically, the Knights have scored more points than the Huskies, averaging over 12 more points per game, and defensively these teams are nearly even though UCF even has the slight edge there, too, at least in terms of total yards allowed.
There’s no question that this game will be a challenge, but take the road team and give the points in this matchup.
College Football Odds: Central Florida 28, Connecticut 23
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