The Eastern Michigan Eagles are not dominating anybody, but they’re quietly having a nice season, getting just enough on offense and a strong defensive performance to pull out victories. They’ve had just enough against the likes of Ohio, but do they have just enough for an upset over an unbeaten Western Michigan Broncos’ squad in Week 8? It’s a tall order for the Eagles’ one-dimensional offense to square of against what could be the best mid major in college football.
This matchup in Week 8 of the regular season will take place on Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Waldo Stadium.
CFB Odds at BookMaker.eu
Eastern Michigan +23.5
Western Michigan -23.5
Over/Under 59
Odds Analysis
We’ve had some movement in the odds and the total since both opened earlier this week. Bettors have been bullish on Western Michigan, expanding the spread by an extra two points from its opening position. The total, however, started a bit high at 64.5-points, drawing limited action on the over. The drop down to 59 has puts the total in a much more reasonable position considering how these two cross-state rivals matchup.
The under has been very successful in Eastern Michigan games, paying out in five straight matchups dating back to Week 3. The Eagles have covered the spread in all five of those games, too, and are 6-1 ATS this season. Western Michigan boasts the same ATS mark.
Matchup to Watch
Western Michigan is stacked on offense. They’re ranked No. 20 in the nation in yards per play and have statistically outperformed some of the big boys in offensive output. The team has a multi-faceted approach and is stacked with talent. The Zach Terrell to Corey Davis connection is one of the best in the sport while running back Jarvion Franklin is fresh off a 281 yard game.
In that same game, Terrell tossed for 207 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for a pair of scores, too.
Eastern Michigan is a better team than Akron, but the Eagles are still giving up 28.3 PPG and well over 400 yards per game. So, they’ll need the offense to keep pace with the Broncos and that means big expectations for Brogan Roback.
The quarterback, much like Franklin, is off a career game. Roback threw three touchdowns to lead the Eagles to a 27-20 win over Ohio in Eastern Michigan’s last game. He also tossed a career-high 347 yards. That big game was needed to get the win, too, as Breck Turner led a lackluster rushing attack with 50 yards. As a team, Eastern Michigan averaged fewer than three yards per carry on the ground.
With the need for offense great in this game for the Eagles to keep pace with the Broncos and with the running attack relatively quiet, all eyes are on Roback and his matchup against a strong Bronco pass rush.
In whole, Western Kentucky ranks No. 22 in total yards allowed and No. 13 in points allowed, giving up 17.6 PPG.
For the defense, Keion Adams is a huge part of the equation. He leads the conference with 11 tackles for a loss and has already notched 5.5 sacks. Adams is a weapon that Western Michigan will have on Roback nearly every play to keep him off balance.
Key Stat
Last Saturday, Davon Tucker fumbled the ball and Akron recovered. Western Michigan still put the game away with a 41-0 victory, but it was shockingly the first turnover given up by the Broncos as they were the last team to record its first turnover of the season.
With just one turnover lost, the Broncos still have the second best turnover margin in the college football, one behind Washington, at 12. The defense has notched eight interceptions and five fumble recoveries.
On the other side of the gridiron, Eastern Michigan is just about average, but in this statistical comparison they come out much worse off. The Eagles after all have forced the same number of turnovers, but they’ve also allowed 13 turnovers, too.
The turnovers, however, have been a bit more in check lately. Eastern Michigan has gotten big games from Roback lately, including a 7:1 touchdown to interception ratio in his last three games.
Free ATS Pick
There’s no doubt Western Michigan is the better team. This should be an easy win at home for the Broncos, but with a 23.5-point spread, it’s not so cut and dry from a betting perspective.
Without much of a rushing game, the Eagles should fall behind early and will turn to the passing game to get them back in the game. With Adams on Roback and the pressure to make a big play on nearly every possession, there’s room for mistakes by the Eastern Michigan quarterback and that’s where the Broncos have a chance to expand the lead and open this game up.
It’s a near lock that Franklin will reach well into the triple-digits in rushing yards again—baring injury—and you can almost guarantee another Terrell-to-Davis touchdown pass, or two.
Eastern Michigan is averaging over 31 PPG allowed on the road so with all of that, you can count on the Broncos scoring and scoring often. You can also look to take the over on the now depressed total even with the under dominating Eastern Michigan’s contests; but can the Western Michigan defense hold up its end of the bargain to allow the Broncos to cover the spread?
It seems like a fair bet. It’s hard to lay all that chalk, but the Eagles don’t have the running game to lean on, the Bronco’s defense is strong and Western Michigan is averaging a 26.7-point differential in its victories this year.
College Football Odds: Western Michigan 43, Eastern Michigan 20
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