The Appalachian State Mountaineers are cruising through Sun Belt play at this point. For the second straight week the Mountaineers defeated a conference opponent by double-digits and submitted an absolutely smothering defensive effort. In College Football Week 8 action, the Mountaineers will host the Idaho Vandals, a team that surprisingly holds a winning record more than halfway through the season and just needs two more wins to become bowl eligible.
This contest in Week 8 of the college football season will go down Saturday, October 22, 2016, at 3:30 p.m. ET at Kidd Brewer Stadium. It will be broadcast on ESPN3.
College Football Odds at BookMaker.eu
Appalachian State -20.5
Idaho +20.5
Over/Under 54
Odds Analysis
Appalachian State has been a favorite in every game it has played against a non-Power Five school and is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. Three of those four have fallen well short of the total as well with the lone exception being an 83-point shootout with Akron in late September.
The Vandals didn’t cover any of their first three games of the season, but have been on a good stretch since then. Idaho has covered three of its last four games, two of those as an underdog, and all of the games it has covered have gone over the total as well.
Matchup to Watch
The Mountaineers’ defense has been absolutely lights out this season. Appalachian State dominated conference foes Georgia State and Louisiana-Lafayette in each of the last two weeks behind a defense that didn’t allow either team to move the ball. Neither team could break the 300-yard mark and those teams combined to score just 3 points between them over the last two weeks.
Idaho’s offense has tallied at least 33 points in three of its last four, but this unit isn’t as good as it seems. Matt Linehan has been pretty pedestrian if you take out his performance last week against New Mexico State. He had thrown for just four touchdowns and three interceptions in the six games prior and had yet to crack the 250-yard mark before his explosion last week against the aggies.
In addition to that, the Vandals can’t run the ball for anything. They are averaging less than 4 yards per carry on the ground and it’s highly unlikely they get anything done against Appalachian State.
Key Stat
Appalachian State has done pretty well in winning low-scoring games and one of the reasons for that is its ability to stop teams on fourth down. The Mountaineers have faced 13 fourth-down conversion attempts this season and have only allowed opponents to convert two of those. Conversely, the Mountaineers have been good on fourth down, converting on 7 of their 13 chances.
The Mountaineers ability to shut down teams on fourth-down could come in handy in this one. Appalachian State will likely be up on Idaho most of the way, but the offense doesn’t put teams away. The defense might have to hold firm on fourth down in order to prevent a back-door cover from occurring.
Free ATS Pick
If the Mountaineers had any sort of offense, this team could have knocked off Tennessee earlier in the year. The defense shut down the Vols’ offense, but Appalachian State wasn’t able to move the ball at all. That seems to be the recipe for an under call against Idaho.
Teams have found success passing on Appalachian State this year, but Idaho doesn’t have the talent to be able to find the weaknesses in this defense. This is the type of game where the Mountaineers will slowly, but surely, squeeze the life out of their opponent and keep them from doing anything offensively. Barring some flukiness or big plays from the Vandals, Appalachian State should get the cover here.
College Football Odds: Mountaineers 34, Vandals 10
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